How much do NFL teams discount a draft pick in a future year?
Every team will be a bit different, obviously, but I think a starting point is that the slot values for next year’s picks are cut in half.In 2016, the Vikings traded #86 (160 pts) to Miami for #186 (17 pts) plus 2017’s 3rd and 4th. The median value of a 3rd is 190, and a 4th 70. So that is 260, half of which is 130, plus the 17 gets you to 147 - pretty close.As it turned out, Miami had a good year, so the 2017 picks were worth less than anticipated.Speaking of anticipation, one of most horrid future projections came in 1982, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded their 1983 first round pick for a second in 1982, used to draft DE Booker Reese.It was know at the time that the 1983 draft was loaded with talent, with six first-round picks eventually making it into the Hall of Fame.SI has a great article about it:https://www.si.com/longform/nfl-...
How likely are you to make the NFL team if drafted in the 2nd round?
100%.Since the introduction of the salary cap, no player drafted in the first two rounds has failed to make the team that drafted them. (Dimitrius Underwood, the Vikings' 29th overall pick in 1999 quit the team in training camp due to issues related to bipolar disorder, but did eventually play for a couple of other teams in the league.) Teams have too much invested in players to give up on them in training camp.There are a bunch of players who never end up playing, usually with the following story: they blow out their knee in training camp, get placed on injured reserve, and then get released the following season when their injury hasn't healed to the extent necessary for them to play at that level. But those players did "make the team" in the sense that they got their contract, and got paid.
Do bad NFL teams ever try to lose at the end of the season to get a higher draft pick?
I don't think NFL teams lay down and try to lose games, however they may rest people with minor injuries or take a look at a backup quarterback. In general players and management have enough Pride to preclude not making an effort to win. A problem can arise when a playoff team can't improve their seeding by winning the final regular-season game and resting players impacts another teams playoff hopes.One year many in the media thought that the Raiders would lose to Cincinnati in their final regular-season game in order to prevent their a arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers from making the playoffs. The Raiders were having none of it and crushed Cincinnati and beat Pittsburgh on their way to winning the Super Bowl.
Why did the Oakland A's waste a draft pick on Kyler Murray? Shouldn't they have known there is a risk that he would choose the NFL?
I think this is one of those things that looks bad with hindsight, but was probably defensible at the time.When the A’s drafted Murray #9 overall, he hadn’t had his Heisman season; in fact, he only had about 140 pass attempts since 2015 (missing 2016 entirely). If he’d had a more normal season and was looking at getting picked in… let’s say… the 3rd round or lower, the $4.66M signing bonus the A’s were offering might have looked pretty tempting to him. Yes, this was always a possibility, but having such a good season he would elevate himself into a potential Top 10 pick in the NFL draft was probably out at the skinny end of the bell curve.
Should the Baltimore Ravens draft a WR or a CB with the first pick in the 2015 NFL draft?
I agree with Franks answer and think A good example of this is what happened to the Ravens in the 2014 draft. ILB wasn't likely high on their priority list having Daryl Smith under contract and drafting Arthur Brown in the 2nd round in 2013. And yet somehow CJ Mosley fell into their lap in the first round and they pulled the trigger. Mosley performed incredibly well in the 2014 season, rivaling rookie seasons of Patrick Willis and Ray Lewis. Arthur Brown sat on the bench for the year despite high the draft capital used. I might make the case that 2015 is the year to draft an RB, though the first round is risky and rare in the new, passing focused NFL. Steve Smith is on his way out and Torrey is a free agent, so there's a case for a WR...though I'm not sure a 1st round WR outside of Cooper, White or Parker would make the pick worthwhile.
What are the chances the Detroit Lions will have a top 3 pick in this year NFL draft?
The odds are stacked against the Lions, who just beat the Patriots on home turf. The Bills are pathetic and the swamping of the Vikings doesn't necessarily negate that. You could say the same about Detroit but there is more promise there than Buffalo. Plus, Arizona is all sorts of fucked right now.The chances are pretty low that Detroit ends with that high of a pick. The North doesn't look that imposing (besides the Bears D) so 6 wins shouldn't be too much to ask for — which guarantees a top-15 pick. There are teams in more pathetic situations. Barry Sanders may have retired in his prime to get out of dodge, but Vontae Davis “retired” at halftime to get out. That is bad.