Are we better now at predicting the weather than our ancestors were?
Yes we have improved over the years. The big problem is that the atmosphere is the biggest thing on earth. In order to predict the weather with a 100% accuracy, one needs to know what is happening everywhere all the time.With the advances in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models our ability to forecast the future weather has become easier and with greater accuracy. The problem is the underlying chaos theory. Because we can’t model the atmosphere completely, small scare changes in the atmosphere can slip through the cracks, which can have consequences that the model do not consider and the forecast can dive into the gate.Here is a link to an article describing the improvement of forecasts over the years:https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/defa...
What is the maximum period of time for which a weather forecast can be made with more than 90% accuracy?
It depends where you are, and how precise a weather forecast you want, for how large an area. It is important to understand both precision and accuracy here.I can give you a 100% accurate ( i.e it will be correct) weather forecast for anywhere in the world for the next 10 years. Temperature will be between -90 and +90 Celsius, precipitation will be 0- 10,000mm per hour…..because it is so imprecise, it is easier to make it accurate. However, it isn’t very useful!If you put sensible limits on the precision required- say +/- 3 Celsius ( about 5F), precipitation +/-5mm ( about 1/5 inch) then you can get a sensible answer about how accurate the forecast is.For some places with little local variation, for example the centre of the great plains of the USA, the centre of an ocean, etc, you can get a forecast for several days ahead accurate 90+% of the time- i.e for 90% of the time, the weather will follow the forecast.For some places with several conflicting weather influence- such as those in temperate regions on the edge of a continent ( the UK and Japan are good examples), getting an accurate forecast for the next day 90% of the time is not yet possible- I think the UK’s official weather forecast is now accurate 75–80% of the time.I now live in the mountains, and here, the effects of altitude, the sun being cut off by mountains, and weather simply not making it over ridge-lines make forecast highly unreliable! If you move just 100km/60 miles down to the plains, the forecast gets much more accurate.
Are Weather Forecasts ALWAYS Accurate?
heck no, they aren't always accurate. This is for two reasons. 1)weather is constantly changing 2) they have to predict for a broad area so while there may be storms, there may also be gaps between storms or weaker spots. If you can, i like to look at a radar map (w/ motion) and try to judge for myself what will happen to me exactly where i am. If you do this often you will get very, very good and timing predictions and such for your area (like for me, I know if a storm is about in place a, it will take about 1 hr to reach me. I also know b/c i like on a raised area, when air hits it it rises and will sometimes form storms outa the blue)
Why do scientists, politicians, and economists have such conflicting views on global warming?
Three main reasons:The science facts have taken a backseat to political dogma. The whole “global warming is our fault and it’s going to kill us” thesis is non-scientific, but is made to order for the political left, conspiracy theorists, and luddites. They have become true believers in this religious concept, and anyone who disagrees is a heretic. Right wingers see this as an attack on capitalism and industry, and it becomes a religious issue with them too.The media and politicians are treating it as a cash cow, and milking the drama for all it’s worth. Deliberately throwing fuel on the fire and selectively withholding information that would calm down all the shouting. They like the situation the way it is, and wish to perpetuate it as long as possible.The public thinks it can learn everything there is to know about the subject of climatology and keep abreast of it through gossip.So, one important thing to know is that (despite other claims here) the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming is losing support among the scientific community. Why? Because any scientific theory has to make predictions that are testable, and then come true. In the mid-90s, when AGW was proposed, the researchers did make 10 year forecasts. They turned out to be wrong. In the mid-2000s, they “improved their models” (which means they fixed some bugs in their simulations) and published a new set of 10-year predictions. Those also turned out to be completely wrong. This is very bad news for the theory, and the number of scientists working on it is dropping fast.It is of course true that human-caused CO2 releases are having a small effect on the climate, but it currently appears to climate researchers that the climate change we have seen over the last 400 years is 98% natural, and 2% human-caused. This updated information on the subject is miraculously not getting out to the public through the media. And the public does not have sufficient communication directly with the scientists to know that the view of the scientific community on the subject has been changing.
Does 60% chance of thunderstorm mean that it is going to happen?
When a front is approaching but there are breaks in the front, we often see our broadcasters list 20 different weather regions and give a percentage probability that each will get precipitation. Forecasters who specify a 60% risk of rain in Toronto and a 30% risk in Hamilton will have concluded that most likely (70%) the rain storms will pass north of Hamilton and not far enough north to miss Toronto. We get a probability that part of the rain will land on the city mentioned. By contrast if the forecast is provincial, so that they are telling us a probability of rain in Southern Ontario, they will give an averaged probability. They may know with almost certainty that somewhere in Southern Ontario there will be rain, but that does not mean 100% if only 60% of weather zones will see rain. Only when a storm front is very wide and with no breaks would there be 100% probability of rain for a given reporting zone. There is no practical benefit in providing a forecast saying 50% probability over a wide area, when they can subdivide the area into several sub-areas, one of which may be certain to have rain, one unlikely to have any and a third that might be a transition zone with 50%.
What type of weather was it when Jesus was born in Bethlehem?
It says it right there in one of the Gospels.“The shepherds were watching their flock and it was cold.”Shepherds usually allow their sheep to roam harvested fields for residual vegetation. After the long, hot and dry summer in the mediterranean climate of the Middle East, pasture is usually scant.In semiarid and arid climates such as Israel, fall often brings very clear, sunny days with still hot weather and a rapid cooldown after sunset. I have been in November camping out in the Chihuahuan Desert Of Northern Mexico with just a thick blanket and no fire - and yes, it was lousy cold. That place is even a bit further south than Betlehem, but also higher up and more inland. So it might not be THAT cold around Bethlehem in fall.In winter, sheep most likely are in their pens on winter pasture they have stored in their barns or granaries. But soon, with incoming rains and snows (yes it does snow in Israel and also in Mexico) the land will green up and sheep will happily munch their days away in the hills and mountains. But if at the birth of Jesus had been any snow or rain, the Gospel might have said so.Now, in Roman times, it is speculated that the overall climate was warmer than even today. The Alps for instance seemed to have been reasonable terrain to drive a herd of elephants over. (Hannibal of Carthage) So that means that the weather in Israel might have been a bit warmer as well. But fall nights in dry lands still get cold. Microclimate in this case wins over global climate.
Why can't my brain stop producing thoughts?
it’s like sherlock holmes way of thoughts 24/7 except when i sleepingi walk down the street and all things i saw get deducted.why?how?who?when i saw a man holding an umbrella, but it’s not raining, my brain was :“hell? maybe 1km ahead already pouring rain or”“is it a hidden weapon? bus hijack?”“oh he’s just a very precautios person, and he doesn’t like to get wet by rain”“or maybe his destination got Rain in weather forecast?”i feel like , my brain become unstoppable rusted gears which can’t stop or slow down in spinning and rotating each other.please, anyone help me know why..