What is the probability of a global recession coming in 2018? Why or why not is it likely?
When you study this GDP recession indicator chart history you will see that we very well are DUE for a new recession.Currently the probability is low… less than 5% according to the index. As you can see the probability shoots up quickly in past recessions… almost without warning.The grey areas are recessions and they seem to occur every 7 to 10 years consistently.This chart shows that we are about due for one, since we came out of the last recession in 2009 or so.What will trigger the next recession is unknown, and I don’t pretend to know the answer since all current indicators show the economy is strong, Real Estate markets are still very healthy, stock markets are at an all time high, the job market is very healthy, GDP is up, and business sentiments are generally very positive.What should frighten you is that if you look at the probability line you can see that when recession hits… it hits fast and hard and usually when nobody is expecting it.It’s not a matter of if but when… Not sure if it will be 2018… but I believe it will be soon.To Conclude:When a recession hits they tend to hit HARD and FASTRecessions tend to hit when nobody thinks they can.There is typically a “Triggering Event” or catylsyt that most cannot see that causes a recession (The mortgage crisis in the last recession)The people that suffer the most are the middle class consumer/workerThe market goes in cycles and our booming economy cycle looks to be at it’s tail end based on irrefutable history.BE READY for the next recession and take steps to protect yourself and capitalize on it. (many new millionaires are made during down turns)Here is what NBC saysHere is what Fox saysIf you got a bit out of this post and like the chart I referenced to, please follow me for other answers and give me an upvote below.
How long is a quarter period in insurance?
quarter----3 months. insurance is billed annually, semi-0annually, quarterly or monthly. It depends on your plan and your ability to budget.
Who is to blame for the US stock market crashing? Is President Trump responsible?
A stock market crash is a steep double-digit percentage loss in a stock market index over a period of several days. It involves panic selling and an abrupt, dramatic price decline. Crashes are UNEXPECTED (see 1929 and 1987).The economy hasn't fundamentally changed significantly in the past few months. The market has been dropping because of concerns about:- Over stretched valuations- Rising interest rates- Looming government shut down- Slowing corporate earnings- Rising material and production costs- Inverted yield curve- Ballooning national deficit- The looming end of quantitative easing in Europe- Slowing Chinese economy- Some stagnant foreign economies- Brexit- Fear and uncertaintyThree very significant factors are the instability and chaos of this administration, the ballooning national deficit (the Trump tax cuts are expected to result in over a trillion dollar deficit next year and even more going forward), and the poorly thought out impulsive tariffs which are hurting the consumer and are beginning to damage corporate earnings. If they continue or even escalate, it may lead to an earnings recession next year.No one knows whether how much further the market will drop. However, if we continue on this trajectory with no abatement of the tariffs, it's likely that we're going to see earnings contractions and a recession WILL occur. An escalation of tariffs will only speed it up.
Did the Economy Do Better Under Obama or Reagan?
The Equalist, I don't even know how to address your stupidity. Reagan had severe recession AND double digit inflation. These are two opposing economic forces... Obama just got a severe recession... And, as far as debt goes, I hope you are kidding... Reagan added plenty to the debt, but it pales in comparison to the debt Obama has piled up...