Are the tensions between Spain and the UK over Gibraltar likely to worsen post-Brexit?
Yes they are. And indeed between Gibralktar and Spain. A No Deal exit will make it easy for Spain to make life difficukt for the economy of Gibraktar; the ports refuelling of shios (bunkering) is dependent on Cepsa a Spanish companyand if no fuel then ships will take their other requirements for spares delivery, provisions and crew changing to Algeciras. Add to thgis deliberate delays at the border by Spanish Police and Custom will take us back to the bad old days. That their own Spanish workers will suffer has never detered the Spanish Government. For my own part I would increase UK military presence at the border and we should be more voluble about Ceuta and Melilla which are de facto Spanish Colonies in Morocco. All possible measures must be considere including expelling Spanish ex-patriates living in UK…
What if Britain goes to war with Spain over Gibraltar?
As Peter Hawkins has explained, such an eventuality is extremely unlikely, though I'd argue that it is because of the manner in which both countries have thus far tackled the issue. Since the turn of the 20th century, Spain's approach to Gibraltar has been less a military one and more an approach of intimidation, using the land frontier between Gibraltar and Spain as a tool to strangle Gibraltar economically and isolate them from the exterior. Such approaches, Spain has found, may upset the international community, but don't cause enough of an uproar as to provoke legal repercussions.Britain, on the flip side, has approached the issue with diplomacy at the forefront. This has proven ineffectual in that Spain ignored their "strongly worded letters" and Gibraltar grows increasingly frustrated with the motherland's inaction. However, by jumping through all the bureaucratic hoops placed before her by Brussels, Britain can say that she has fulfilled her duty as a parent nation.Neither country wants a war, especially with a NATO ally, so they will keep playing this game at the expense of the Gibraltarian population's patience.
Why Gibraltar is not part of Spain and how United Kingdom colonised it?
Spain ceded Gibraltar to Great Britain as part of the treaty of Utrecht in 1713, signed by the several countries involved in the War of the Spanish Succession.
If Britain goes to war with Spain over Gibraltar will the rest of the EU declare war on the UK?
Most likely, as 22 EU members are also NATO members, including Spain.If the UK attacks Spain (which is highly unlikely) over their supposed threats to take Gibraltar from them, then it’s highly likely that the UK will be expelled from NATO for attacking another member, prompting all other NATO members to go to war or at least condemn the UK’s actions. This is part of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty which upholds collective defence. That is, if one NATO member is attacked, then that attack is considered an attack on the whole of NATO, which may lead to total war. For a NATO member state to attack another NATO member state would be an outrageous act in the eyes of the organisation and the attacker would be expelled almost immediately for breaking their commitment to mutual defence. If not an attack but some sort of renewed intense dispute were to occur, which is more likely, then NATO will no doubt work with the UK, Spain and the EU to come to a resolution, without the need for violence.This scenario where the UK actually pre-emptively strikes Spain over Gibraltar is unlikely to occur though and are just empty, but alarming, threats from trigger-happy politicians.If Spain invades Gibraltar, in a similar way to how the Falklands War broke out, then a similar situation would likely occur but with Spain being expelled from NATO.
Are we really likely to see a war between Spain and the UK over Gibraltar?
No, Gibraltar is not important enough to Spain to go to war over. Though it would be a nifty military base for Spain, Spain’s not really worried about invasion by Italy, Algeria, or Morocco, so it doesn’t need a base. Also, though the Spaniards would probably jump at the chance to have Gibraltar back if a genie blinked and gave it to them, they would have a knot in their stomach since they’d have to absorb 30,000 English-speakers and they already have their hands full with several hundred thousand demanding British retirees who live in Spain. They’ll have their hands even more full of those retirees after Brexit. Finally, EU member states - and Spain is one - are not supposed to pursue territorial claims. They’re theoretically to have settled all those upon EU succession. If I were Gibraltarian, I would not stay up worrying about Spain taking me back. I WOULD worry all the time about the possibly devastating effects Brexit might have on me, especially if Spain slows the speed of crossings by even ten percent, and so on. Or, for that matter, if BRITAIN slows the speed of crossings by even ten percent!
When Britain give Gibraltar back to Spain?
The territory was ceded to Britain over 300 years ago by the Treaty of Utrecht. It would be agains European Union Law for Spain to close the border between itself and Gibraltar, regardless of the pretext they dream up. One EU country cannot erect barriers between itself and another EU country, and Gibraltar, as part of Great Britian is therefore an EU Country. Like the Falklanders, the people of Gibraltar have made it clear, over and over, their desire to remain British, and will therefore remain so. Do not the people living in areas such as this have a right to determine their own future? It would seem like those of Gibraltar and the Falklands have done so.
What if the UK began an air raid against Spain over Gibraltar, what would happen?
Why would that happen, really? Really why would that happen? Gibraltar is the gateway to the Mediterranean when Britain had a mighty Navy but it has about three dinghies now and hasn’t had a European war since 1945. Despite Brexit the UK likes Europe just not its politics. And this question is political and therefore crass to most of the UK. When our politicians start to care about high house prices, generation rent, the rich poor divide, healthcare, old age care, the burgeoning taxes placed on normal people to keep those in public service employed then after all that we’ll care about bombing Gibraltar.