Who will win the US Senate Elections 2018?
I feel democrats are a sure-shot winner at the US Senate Elections 2018. Republicans like Dean Heller could not live up to his promise. He once said that he would not support any plan that Republican Governor Brian Sandoval did not but after a few months did that exactly. This tarnished Heller’s image and also reduced his chance to win at elections.It is unfortunate for Dean Heller to be the only Senate Republican standing up for reelection in Nevada where Hillary Clinton won. At Nevada, the number of Latinos and labor-dominated democratic people is increasing. Heller himself is not sure of his win at US Senate Elections 2018.Obamacare repeal was a big blunder by Heller. He attended a press conference with Sandoval and declared that the Governor’s opinion would take decisions for his state that had extended Medicaid to cover approximately 10,000 poor people. The US Senator voted for various repeal plans. It was always difficult for Heller to win over maximum votes in elections and he could not make it easier for him.Jacky Rosen has been capable of building a small lead in the polls. As per certain surveys, Heller got a 1.7 point lead on average. As per RCP, it is a tie between Dean Heller and Jacky Rosen. Though, both republicans and democrats have got the equal chance of winning in Nevada, still I feel democrats may beat republicans.
Do you think the Democrats can win back the Senate?
Yes, but it is extremely thin. Blackburn (R) and Cruz (R) in Tennessee and Texas are looking like they will win and that should hold things for the Republicans.Arizona is a toss-up right now. McSally (R) could use some help from the White House, but Trump had angered many Arizona voters with his statements on John McCain.Heitkamp is pulling every move possible in North Dakota, but it looks like she will lose that democratic seat.Menendez is faltering at the end in New Jersey, Hugin (R) the GOP challenger has thrown $33 million of his own money into an intense smear campaign and it is working. Menendez has plenty of skeletons in and out of the closet to attack.Pundits have the GOP likely to win 52–48, 54–46 is not out of the question. But the democrats are well within the margin of error.
Prominent Democratic politicians who have committed adultery?
In an e-mail, a conservative friend of mine accused liberals (like myself) of thinking there's nothing wrong with committing adultery. (BTW, I do believe adultery is wrong and is a sin. I just don't believe in making a big deal about it.) I responded with a list of prominent conservatives who have committed adultery themselves: Newt Gingrich Larry Craig David Vitter John Ensign Mark Sanford John McCain Bob Livingston In response to that he said that if we were to compare lists, I would lose miserably. Basically saying he can list many more Democratic adulterers than the Republicans I could list. Before I reply to him, I want to know how right (or wrong?) he is. What Democratic Governors, Senators, and Congressman in the last ten or fifteen years are known for committing adultery? Also, if you want, feel free to add to my list.
Are the recent wins by the Democrats a referendum on Trump?
Wow. Two whole gubernatorial victories, possible control of the Virginia General Assembly, and the mayoral race in New York. All Democrat strongholds, all liberal areas, all following predictions of Democrat wins.Of note is the fact that in every instance the Democrats won the areas that have voted with the left in prior elections. However, Republican areas also maintained their same dominance, with the Democrats making no inroads into gaining any increase or edge in those areas.I really enjoyed the fact that several Democrat leaders and pundits pointed out that identity politics may still potentially be a positive force for the future of the party. That alleviated any concerns about a strong Democratic showing in 2018.As soon as it starts to look like the Democrats may finally be getting their shit together, and solving the crippling in-Party problems that are keeping them insolvent, some idiot in their party says something stupid like that.Basically they are simply getting a bigger shovel as they continue to dig their own grave. Meaningless wins in non contested areas will give the Democrats nothing in the 2018 elections except more heartbreak.I do think the excited wishful thinking by the media and Dem leaders is really cute and sweet. Unfortunately, cute and sweet don't win elections.
What are the chances the Senate will flip to Democrat majority in November (2018)?
There are 8 really contested seats, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, North Dakota and Florida. I throw in Montana, even though its considered safe, because it went 20+% for Trump in 2016.Republicans are defending contested seats in Arizona, (retiring), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas. Democrats are defending contested seats in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota.Assuming an even split of contested seats, it ends up going 51–49 Republicans.In reality, I think it’ll shake out with Democrats taking Nevada and Arizona, retaining Florida, but losing in North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri.The Senate would then shake out to a 52–48 Republican lead. (Now with my oddball of Montana thrown in, it’s 53–47, but it’s a gut feeling, not actual data.)The issue is Democrats are running for re-election in states that Obama helped them win in 2012. His name isn’t on the ballot this go around, and he was massively helpful. Now, they’re forced to defend states like North Dakota and Missouri and Indiana. Those are tough races to win, and it doesn’t help that the economy is booming. They ultimately have to win 6 races, and maintain all of their other seats, while the Republicans just have to win three (and maintain their other seats). That’s a tall order.RealClearPolitics has great information about this for more reading.So, doing some rough math with probabilities and ugly crap that I was too lazy to look up online, I give the Democrats around a 36% chance at taking the Senate, and the Republicans roughly the same of increasing by a seat.EDIT, 10/17/18. So, I’m going to go ahead and flip Nevada and Indiana. I think the rest of the races play out as projected, but it looks like Nevada is pulling right just a tad, and Indiana is staying further left than I thought it would. Still 52–48 as my prediction though.
Mike Nifong, Democrat, violated the right of defendants to a fair Trial, so where is the Democrat's outrage?
Where is the media's coverage that Mike Nifong is (or was-I think he is done!) a Democrat? Let a Republican do something half as bad as this Democrat did and the MSM (Main Stream Media) would have been all over the fact that he was a Republican. Boy, they were lapping up his Rape charges of the Duke lacrosse team members. They publicized every accusation as if it was fact proven beyond a doubt. But they sure have been quiet about the fact that the scumbag was a protect your rights Democrat! I have to wonder whether he would have prosecuted a black rapist with anywhere near the vigor, much less the illegal tactics. But, Democrats use their heart instead of the heads and EVERYONE knows that privileged white students are ALWAYS the villians and poor black prostitutes are ALWAYS the victims. What he did was 100 times worse than what Scooter Libby was convicted of doing, but what kind of sentence do reckon he will get?