Is it plausible that most U.S. Presidential poll respondents are lying to pollsters about support of Donald Trump?
At this stage in the race Trump's lead is about 99% name recognition and news cycles.Iowa Caucuses aren't for another 6 months, only the most politically keen are paying any attention to the race beyond occasionally hearing that candidate X has announced in the news then forgetting about it a week later.Trump has (had) a major TV show and has been famous for decades. TV networks cover every insane thing he says which means that when a pollster calls and asks if you're a Republican and who you'd vote for for president you can probably only remember a few names so why not Trump?It sounds dumb that people would answer that way just because they've heard of somebody but there's strong evidence that survey respondents don't like to answer with "I don't know" partly to avoid appearing ignorant but also because they want to give the interviewer what they feel they want (i.e. a definite answer).
Why is it so bad to have/require that people show their ID when they go in to vote?
It is not necessary. Voter fraud has been studied, many times, and it is so rare as to be a non-issue.Those who do not own a photo ID tend to be minorities. They also tend to be poor. They are often the same people who do not own the most common form of photo ID, a driver’s license. They cannot afford a car, and have no need for a driver’s license, and every penny counts. They tend to work in jobs where they cannot easily take time off of work to go and obtain one. They work at jobs where this is not permitted at all, or where they will lose pay if they do take the day off. They are the very people who cannot afford this. Almost every state which offers a photo ID charges for them. Most of the poor have to think twice about paying for a voter ID, versus making sure there is food in the refrigerator for the kids.The movement to require more forms of ID, or some form of “photo ID” is actually Unconstitutional, and is a variation of the schemes that were used in the south in the late 1950s and early 1960s to keep blacks from voting, and to keep Hispanics from voting, and to keep the poor from voting. Some of these schemes were to require a “literacy test.” (This was rigged, it was an oral text to a white County Clerk, who asked you to explain one section or Article from the Constitution. The clerk decided if you passed, or failed. You can guess who always failed.) In other locations, voters had to pay a poll tax. Something easy for the middle class and wealthier whites to pay, but not so easy for the starving to pay. In other locations, a whole slew of discriminatory laws included “good character tests” — again, an oral quiz given by some white County Clerk, who decided if you had passed or not. Those were all found to be Unconstitutional. This “ID requirement” movement is actually being pushed by Republicans, an it is a return to those same sad days of discrimination.
Poll: Can you be in a real loving relationship when the trust is gone?
poll to help a friend out. She can no longer trust her fiance and says she still loves him. So I wondered if the trust is gone, can you still have a successful relationship? Especially if your significant other refuses to go to couples counseling about the issue or stop his actions which caused her mistrust.
Why would he lie about watching P**n?
Because when most men are alone and get bored with themselves they want to hang out with their buddy. Porn fluffs them up for their own mental foreplay and fantasy and they are Jack stud having the time of their life. He does not want you to know how much he enjoys his time viewing porn without you there because he does not have to please anyone but himself. As long as this takes nothing away from you intimately with him I guess it would not be a problem as long as his fantasy never goes out the door to look for the real thing sweetie.
What kind of lies can data science expose?
All sorts of things. In fact, data science (or even data investigations, analyst work, experimental design, …) can help you identify all sorts of biases!Let’s say Bob ran a study that shows 80% of students late to class get a C grade or lower. Clearly, being late to class means lower grades! But wait, if you’re a data scientist who designs experiments for a living — (note, some of these overlap) —(Base rate) Maybe the course is tremendously difficult, and the professor historically only gives A and Bs to <15% of students. So that means typically >85% of students get a C or lower. So 80% is actually not bad!(Sample size) How many people did Bob ask? Maybe Bob only asked 1 person who happened to be late and also happened to get a C in the class.(Selection bias) Who did Bob ask? Maybe Bob only asked slackers. On the response variable side, maybe Bob only selected for his study tough intro classes where grades are deflated already.(Reporting bias) If you get a C or you’re late to class, maybe you’re too embarrassed to participate in Bob’s study. So Bob’s results may actually be an underestimate.(Temporal bias) Bob conducted his study during finals period, when students may be busy studying (so they tend to be late or skip classes altogether) and sleep-deprived (so they tend to get Cs)(Endogenous selection bias / colliding variables) In reality, tardiness has no impact on grades. But Bob chose to poll only his lazy neighbors who are both tardy and get low grades, hence, we see a spurious relationship between tardiness and grades.(Confounding variables) Lack of motivation can drive both tardiness and low grades. So tardiness doesn’t necessary cause low grades, but lack of motivation drives them both in similar directions.(Endogeneity - simultaneity) Tardiness drives low grades drives tardiness. So Bob not only mistakes a two-way relationship for a one-way causal relationship, but perhaps also overestimates the effect size.Whenever you catch wind of study results, you can start by asking:How large is the sample?What is in the sample? (What should be there?)What is not in the sample? (What should not be there?)
Do you seniors believe you're marginalized sometimes?
Not so much with this generation. I see seniors standing up for their beliefs, doing more than past generations in staying as healthy and active in the communities and best of all, not just sitting back and accepting old age as the end. We're a "force to reckon with." We've got a lot to do yet.