Predict The Presidential Tickets In 2016

Who will win the 2016 USA Presidential Election final predictions?

I think Hillary is going to win. Granted she is not very inspiring as a candidate and i think her fairly uncharasmatic personality has been an ongoing issue for her. However she is extremely experienced at politics and she’s dedicated to her country - a quick google search will show you her wealth of experience. Furthermore Bernie Sanders has done America a service by not running against Hillary as an independent after he lost the democratic nomination. Although some of his more fanatical (and quite frankly childish) supporters are voting 3rd party or trump I think that the majority will - albeit grudgingly- vote for Hillary. Furthermore trump has done a lot of damage to his campaign by going after so many groups and being so inflammatory. Incidents such as the surfacing of the 2005 “grab em by the pussy” video have caused a shockingly large number of republican senators (who previously supported trump) to give their support to Hillary - a woman who was likely disliked or hated by many of them! To summarize Clinton will win largely due to the irrationality and stupidity of Trump.

What is Allan Lichtman's prediction for the 2016 Presidential election?

To develop my prediction, I used my model known as the Keys to the White House. The Keys model is based on the analysis of every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980. It consists of 13 true/false questions, where an answer of true favors the reelection of the party holding the White House. If 6 or more keys are false, the White House party is predicted to lose an upcoming election. I have used the keys to correctly forecast the outcomes of all American presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.Currently, the keys very narrowly point to the defeat of the incumbent Democrats with exactly 6 keys turned against them: midterm election losses, the lack of a sitting president running, a significant third party movement, lack of policy change in the Obama second term, lack of a major foreign policy success, and lack of an inspirational Democratic Party candidate. However, for the first time in more than 30 years, my prediction comes with a caveat. First, the negative call on the third-party key is shaky, given that libertarian Gary Johnson seems to be fading. Second, Donald Trump is such a dangerously unprecedented candidate that he may be the one Republican who could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in this election. For example, at one point during the Republican primaries of 2012, Herman Cain was the leading candidate. Yet accusations of sexual harassment from 3 or 4 women drove him out of the race. Yet Trump continues on despite accusations of sexual harassment and assault from 12 women and despite bragging about sexually assaulting women. He has demeaned not only women, but African Americans, Hispanics, and the disabled. He is backed by the KKK and other white supremacist and anti-Semitic groups. He has falsely claimed the election is rigged against him. He has no record of public service, but a record of enriching himself at the expense of others. He has broken with a decades-long tradition by refusing to release his tax returns, etc.

What is your 2016 presidential election prediction?

It’s crazy for me to say that even a week out from election I’m not sure what the results may be. However, my best guess is that the electoral map will look something like this in the event of a Clinton victory.I’ve put Utah red but it could go to McMullin. Florida will be the closest in the race but I think that Clinton has built a formidable ground game that will help her get out the minority vote who vehemently detest Trump, but I’d definitely put Florida within my margin of error — it could go either way. Demographics seem to work better for Trump in Ohio and Iowa, the white middle working-class population there is going to benefit him greatly. Governor Kasich might depress turnout for Donald a bit, but I think that he’s certainly the favourite to win in that state.North Carolina is significantly more blue than it was last election. A reversal in voter suppression laws in that state will make it easier for the Clinton Coalition to come out and secure that state for her. Maine’s district is a toss up also but I think Trump has a slight edge there and the demographics suit his campaign.Arizona could have been close if Trump did something dumber than usual in the last few weeks of the race. Who knows — there’s still a week left.If Trump wins, though, I think that it’ll probably look like this:I can’t imagine a Trump victory any bigger than that. It’s a stretch to give Trump New Hampshire right now, so as you might imagine a Trump victory is still quite a stretch. The electoral college certainly doesn’t work in his favour. We’ll know on election night that a Trump victory is probable if he manages to win Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. I’m not including them in this graph though because it’s just not likely as of 01/11/16.A Clinton blowout would probably look like this graph. This is significantly less likely after the FBI Director sent that letter to Congress regarding Huma Abedin’s laptop, but we’ll never know until election night:This is less likely than a Trump victory, but it still could happen.A McMullin victory in Utah would certainly shake the race up a bit if Trump was in the lead:He’d need to pull off a miracle and take Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado or Pennsylvania. Still, this would probably end up in a Trump victory when it goes to the House of Representatives. Or perhaps not, conservative anti-Trump Republicans could vote for McMullin handing Hillary a victory.