How do you annualize quarterly data?
Say, with GDP, how do you calculate the 3rd Qtr ANNUALIZED growth rate once the data for the quarter is out? If a quarter is annualized, does it indicate what the annual GDP is believed to be like? If so, are early Annualized Quarterly growth rates less reliable than those that come later in the year (such as Q3, Q4?) Thanks!
Should you value a public company by annual or quarterly data?
Interesting question,noting down some thoughts that flashed while reading .For short term,numbers will tell a better story, but when the horizon is widened,these numbers become pointless ,the service or product becomes prime. Customers can shift their demand for products or services ,rather so quickly the company could not do much to avoid the same or very few companies come up with bright ideas that helps them to survive longer life span.It’s easier to say banks would exist tomorrow ,than the company apple would . A major technological shift can make iPhones feel inferior . So in this case even if the numbers tells a great story for Apple ,there is no guarantee that it’s a valid assurance that it would continue to tell the same story in future too.Banking has no fail proof system but it would be somehow protected ,since medium of exchange has been around for quite a time ,that history cannot be matched by other prime industries of the day ,which is based on newly created demands based on the behavioral shift of society as a whole.So when applying annual or quarterly data to any form companies ,it only gives an assurance for a very short period of time. For longer horizon we always have to rely on more qualitative factors than what numbers can offer.
Econometrics: Is it ok to model quarterly data with only 5 years of historical information?
Your regressions will be estimated only on 20-22 observations due to quarterly frequency. It means that you will not be able to obtain statistically significant results unless you build a regression with only one or, maybe, two exogenous variables. Moreover, if you include lags or leads, your regressions will surely deteriorate in quality and reliability. Also, most economic timeseries are nonstationary, hence you will need to take a difference; it will reduce estimation sample by 1-2 points and the degrees of freedom will decrease. If you want to make a forecast, then the best option is to try building a parsimonious ARMA or ARIMA model. If you want to have regressions for economic analysis purpose, then 5 years of quarterly observations is not sufficient.
Is there a stock screener out there that can analyse quarter vs quarter eps change?
I have been trying to find a stock screener that allows you to enter the parameters for the CANSLIM approach to stock selection. I cannot find any screener that actually measures quarter vs quarter EPS or any other detailed data regarding EPS other that yearly, 3yr or 5year. Does anyone know any screener that can be of benefit? Thanks
GDP is available in quarterly frequency. How do you calculate for annual frequency? Do you sum or average the quarters data? Same for trade balance?
The typical way is to take the average over the last 4 quarters since the GDP reported on quarterly basis is actually “yearly” GDP.For instance, in billions of dollars,US GDP in 2015Q4: 17649.3US GDP in 2015Q3: 17913.7US GDP in 2015Q2: 18060.2US GDP in 2015Q1: 18164.8Summing these numbers up do not make sense (you will end up with ~$72 trillion for 2015 GDP - we wish!).Bottomline is that it is important to know how the data is reported. In general, “yearly” values are provided.
Is there a way to automatically get annual financial data from Google? I use the data query from Excel but it can only get quarterly data from Google.
Yes, there is a way to do this.Using financial data from Intrinio, you can set parameters to pull data from a certain time frame or frequency. Here is an example of how you would do this: API ExplorerYou would then use Google as your identifier and “yearly” for your frequency, similar to what I have shown below.Hope this helps!Full disclosure: I work for Intrinio.
Which web site gives the previous 10 years earnings of a public company?
While the SEC Edgar database is the time-consuming method, it is also the most accurate, and the only source I would trust if I was truly looking for thorough due diligence. However, there are several other sources for historical financials:MSN - http://moneycentral.msn.com - MSN provides 10-year financial summary information, but the summary is missing many key pieces (such as cash flow information).SmartMoney - http://www.smartmoney.com/quote/... - Enter stock quote, click on financials, then change to the annual option (income statement, balance sheet, or cash flow statement). Must toggle between 5 years at a time and can't export.ADVFN - http://www.advfn.com - One of the most comprehensive sources of information, ADVFN provides financial statements that often cover a date range as far back as the EDGAR filings (1993 for many stocks). Search for a stock, then click on company information to find a host of ratios, charts, and links to the annual reports. However, you are limited to seeing a 5 year period at one time.GuruFocus - http://www.gurufocus.com - Search for ticker symbol, click on 10-Year Financials. Provides single-page view of last 10 years AND last five quarters. Export to excel option is only available for premium members ($250/yr)Morningstar - http://www.morningstar.com - Search for Ticker symbol, click on Financials. 10-year financials are only available for premium members ($185/yr). However, the export to excel option is available for the past 5 years of financial information. IMO, the cleanest and fastest export option with nicely formatted information.SMF Excel Plug-in - http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/... - My personal favorite by far, this free excel plug-in allows you to build your own custom spreadsheets to pull updated information using over 14000 data points from various financial websites. 10-year financials, insider ownership, valuation ratios, etc. Requires some excel knowledge. For true flexibility and power, it's hard to beat.Personally, I spend most of my time in EDGAR but these other options can provide a provide a quick signal that further due diligence is required.
What should be the structure of the time-series data in excel/csv file before applying ARIMA model using R?
Hi there,Timeseries data means the data has been captured at regular interval. It can be monthly, quarterly or yearly data but with no missing values. How should your data look like?In the above example sales has been recorded at monthly level (dd/mm/YYYY). Now you can save this file as .csv and can easily import in R.#Note: You don’t need month column if you know the interval of the data. You can directly covert it into timeseries.data_set <- read.csv("DataFileName.csv", header = T, stringsAsFactors = F)data_set_ts <- ts(data_set$Sales, frequency = 12, start = c(2001,1))# If you don't have month column and only sales column data_set_ts <- ts(data_set, frequency = 12, start = c(2001,1))After importing you should check missing values and treat them. And then apply ARIMA method for forecasting. Good luck!