What would happen if England left the United Kingdom?
This is far more complex than most people give it credit for.Many people forget that the United Kingdom is a union between two nations, the kingdoms of England and Scotland (Ireland had no choice).Wales and later Northern Ireland mostly by default were later referenced as countries and it has simply stuck. The UK governments own website calls Northern Ireland a country on one page and a province on the next.England and Wales are in every sense one larger nation, Welsh independence much like English is a rather fringe movement with little support. England and Wales are united under English common law and Wales is a principality of the English crown.What would happen if England left the UK? It would mostly look identical to Scotland leaving the UK.England and Wales would likely form as the Kingdom of England and Wales. Northern Ireland would remain an English crown provincal dependency and remain part of the new Kingdom. All British crown dependencies today would simply have a legislation rename as English dependencies. For the people of these autominous lands it would make little difference.England would most certainly remain a leading global power. Alone England is the world's 6th largest economy, it provides the mass bulk of the UKs armed services, most large British firms are English and based in England, it has a large and educated population and the wage is good.There are very valid arguments to be made that a centralised England & Wales could be more successful than the current form of United Kingdom.
What would happen if NI and Scotland voted to leave the UK?
Then presumably they would leave, Scotland hopefully to be an independent Nation within the EU, and NI subsumed into the Republic of Ireland, again probably within the EU.In 2017 it seems silly to think of forcing Democratic Countries (or parts of countries) to remain within any form of coalition or greater entity by force, or against the will of the people.This is what makes the EU reaction to the People of Britain voting to leave so silly. The EU is supposed to be an association of Democratic countries linked for greater co-operation, but when one members says actually we think we would rather not stay in the club, the other members act like a boy band when the singer wants to leave!I would hope if NI and/or Scotland wished to leave the UK we would say sorry to see you go, we'll make it as painless as possible, and we hope we will remain good friends.
If England held a referendum to leave the United Kingdom, what would Wales and Scotland do?
The United Kingdom comprises of 4 countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. If any of these 4 countries decide they want to leave they would have to get permission from parliament to hold referendum to leave. If the referendum is successful then they would have the mandate from the people to leave. Referenda are often non biding, meaning that parliament does not have to act upon the outcome that is voted for (although it would be an unwise move to ignore the popular vote). Provided that England got enough votes to leave, it would probably cause the end of the United Kingdom, politically but not sovereignly. It is unlikely that any political government formed in the near future would allow a referendum of this nature to happen. Neither of the three main parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats) would want to be known as the political party that caused the fragmentation of the United Kingdom.
When will Scotland leave the UK?
I don’t believe the Scottish will ever vote to leave the UK.Nationalist ebb and flow like the sea, we reached the peek and now decline.SNP will continue to lose seats and the popularity of Jeremy Corbyn will continue to out poll Nicola Sturgeon. Ala another Quebec situation with minority rumbling and majority getting on with life
What would happen to the UK's nuclear arsenal if Scotland leaves the UK?
The SNP is totally against nuclear weapons, and is unilateralist about disarmament. It has made clear that in the event of an independent Scotland, the submarines and missiles could not be based in Scottish terroritory.Now, supposing rUK can’t bounce the SNP into changing their mind (and then then rUK paying to lease the current bases), the missiles and subs would have to be maintained elsewhereThis BBC article has a very quick look at alternatives.Scottish independence: Where might Trident go? - BBC NewsThey are:Milford HavenPlymouthBarrow-in-FurnessBut all three of them have significant disadvantages. This image, again from the BBC.The other options of moving them to the USA or France I think would be politically unthinkable.The Scottish government would not have any say in the weapons being used.
What happens to the North Sea and the oil if Scotland leaves the UK?
Of course, North Sea oil has contributed billions to the Westminster (British) government over the years and so the problem for the UK would be losing that income to an independent Scotland. And so the decision was made by the UK government to change the maritime (sea) border. The Scotland-England border runs fairly straight across both countries and so normally that maritime ‘border’ should continue in that way. But, before the Scottish independence vote, that maritime border was changed by the UK government so that it now angles steeply upwards once at the sea and, as a result, many of the offshore oil fields are now in ‘English’ territory. There was no way the UK Treasury would allow that massive income to be diverted to an independent Scotland.