Did Obama miscalculate the effects of his interference in Ukraine?
Thanks for A2A, Hersh Bortman.>>Did Obama miscalculate the effects of his interference in Ukraine?If we examine this material - The Obama Doctrine - then we might find out that the Obama Ukraine doctrine sounds like this:“…And the notion that somehow Russia is in a stronger position now, in Syria or in Ukraine, than they were before they invaded Ukraine or before he had to deploy military forces to Syria is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of power in foreign affairs or in the world generally. Real power means you can get what you want without having to exert violence. Russia was much more powerful when Ukraine looked like an independent country but was a kleptocracy that he could pull the strings on.”…The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do.…But this is an example of where we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for. And at the end of the day, there’s always going to be some ambiguity. ”So if this “real power doctrine” was realized by USA diplomacy and special forces, then we can see the result - there is no USA military involvement, while there is civil war in Ukraine, Russian Federation is under sanctions and (!) bails out bankrupt Ukrainian economy. So I might say that those results are pretty impressive from tactical point of view in terms of cost/benefits ratio.Yet if we consider the situation strategically someone (in UK, EU, China, Brazil etc.) might say that USA is not really good world leader in XXI century - instead of promoting prosperity and security world-wide it spreads death and poverty. Who can guarantee that after Russian Federation and Ukraine USA would not go after someone else?
Has Ukraine's trade with Belarus increased or decreased since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? Why?
Decreased. There were economic tensions between Ukraine and Belorussia in 2014 which were resolved though. However Belorussia increased import requirements again though their Государственная Санитарно-гигиеническая экспертиза продукции с 27.08.2015 (постановление № 666 от 6.08.2015). It excludes Russian and Kazakh goods yet mandatory for Ukrainian ones, though both Ukraine and Belorussia signed a free trade agreement previously together with many other former USSR republics. In return, Ukraine announced their decision to charge a 39.2% duty on most imports from Belorussia effective on the 20th of January 2016. In fact, it makes them uncompetitive.As of trade volume for the year 2015 excluding Q4, Ukraine imported from Belorussia goods worth 1785 million USD and exported to them goods worth 625 million USD. Most important Belorussian exports are tires and tractors as well as oil products re-exported from Russia. So, Belorussia has more to lose in this trade war.
How safe is it to live in Ukraine and Kyiv?
In my opinion — now it is not very safe, and 10 years ago it was a lot safer.Crime:A lot more news or post on social network about burglaries. A few of my friends were burgled — and it was never that often before 2014. Last 2 years I regularly see news about armed crime: someone gunned down or blown grenade on something. Again, it was never that often before 2014. 4 streets close to one I live saw gunfire, grenade explosion or murder in last 3 years. Again, such were not happening that often before. So far I know no shootings with random victims, but news like I see do not make one feel safe.Mafia:Some people talk about different mafias, but usually that not involves ordinary people, who don’t do any illegal, or half-legal, “grey” business.Corruption:Some facts point at it. For instance, like 15,000 families invested in illegal construction projects (developed without proper permissions), and construction project is not thing you can hide, so people suspect that bribes were involved. Also, word is that illegal or half-legal business may be looked one or other way, dependent on authorities attitude.Kidnapping:Rare cases._____For common person usual precautions should work: don’t walk at night on dark streets, avoid places were people drink vodka in poor districts, if you see group of people shouting something better avoid them. If some person approaches you on street and says that you won something — say “Not interested” and walk away. If you are non-white avoid gangs of football hooligans on days of football matches. Don’t take any things on streets which do not belong to you. Special warning about Central Railroad Terminal: for many years that place attracts many criminals, so one better be on guard there.
Does Russia have any historical claim to eastern parts of Ukraine?
"Historic claim" is a rather ridiculous concept. If you dig deep enough, Crimea should be split between Greece and Italy. Modern troops of Catherine the Great kicked Ukrainian Cossacks out of the barely populated steppes. They remained barely populated until Welshman Hughes started to relocate Russian peasants there to mine coal - and founded the town then called "Hughesovka", later "Stalino", and from early 60s - Donetsk. Someone wanted to restore British Empire - perhaps you should start with Donetsk*. What is happening in Donetsk has nothing to do with Russia and everything to do with Ukraine. People feel been abused by consecutive Ukrainian Governments. Then they elected "their" Yanukovich - and he got removed by the "Westerners". Of course Yanukovich was not "theirs" but a self-serving thug, but hey, if you can remove legally elected power by throwing rocks and burning tires, shouldn't' they try that way of getting better life?My [Jewish] great-grandfather was mining coal there - he didn't live long. It was - and in Ukraine it still is - a very hard job rich in dangers and health hazards, yet poor in pay. As I understand none of the "pro-Western" leaders did anything to get the lives of people in Donetsk closer to Western standards, and the new one appointed the people whom they blame for their misery as their Governors. Why is it so surprising that they want out - or at least to pretend they want out to get something?Sure, Russia wants them to secede - they may also want Alaska to secede from US and join Russia, however Putin's rule doesn't look that desirable across Bering Strait. What should be done to a country to want Putin - try to imagine. Talk to them about collective bargaining, industrial relations tribunals, minimum wage, conflict of interests and NHS, and they forget Putin and pledge their loyalty to the Crown in a fortnight. At least 96% of them.(*) of course I do know that shady business dealings of one expat don't create any historic claim or historic responsibility - I used reductio ad absurdum to explain how ridiculous is the way the problem is discussed.
What are Russia's relations with former USSR countries?
As a russian, I’d start answering this question with dividing these countries in three groups:European countries. We’re speaking about Estonia, Latvia and such. Here we may agree that they don’t like Russia, and hold a considerable grudge against us. Not saying that they have no reason to do so - we had a long and not really pleasant history, after all. Nevertheless, can you name even a single non-slavic European country which is not prejudged against USSR and Russia? So - no surprise here. They hate us, and we try not to contact them unless necessary.Asian countries. Our southern neighbors - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, these guys. These, on the contrary, tend to be more or less opened toward us. I’m not saying we’re actually friends - it’s more of the Eastern “sure, we can use each other for now, so let’s go with it” pragmatic mentality. Also, a lot of people from these countries come to Russia for work and marriage. American readers can draw parallels with Mexico, which would hit pretty close to home.In-between. Or rather, “former Russia”. Belarus and Ukraine, namely. These are regions who historically were part of the Russian Empire and later Soviet Union, but now became independent. However, they still remained Slavic in nature, and thus tried to keep friendly relationships with both Russia (their big brother neighbour) and Europe (political competitors of that neighbour), without shifting too close to each. As the expression goes, “tried sitting on two seats at once”. And it worked! Worked very well for Belarus, and more or less - for Ukraine, until recent coup and following civil war. Ukraine is actually a pretty good example. Half of it wanted to come closer to Europe, and another half wanted to remain close with Russia. And while the overall balance was kept - they managed to co-exist. But the moment any of these groups would gain advantage, another one would begin to protest. That’s precisely what we’re observing right now.To put things simple, that’s how things are in our shared corner of the world.Thank you for your question!