HEY canada is going conservative....liberal/progre... has failed yet again?
Harper and his cons only received 39.6% of the popular vote. The country is no more conservative than it was before the election, but it has demonstrated the problem with the "first past the post" electoral system when there is more than two parties running and vote splitting occurs. In this election there were five main parties with four of those parties vying for the left wing vote. What you fail to realize is that the socialist democrat party, the NDP, made the largest gains of all the parties, which indicates that Canada is shifting left, not right.
Why did Canadians vote against the Conservatives?
Harper did a lot of damage. He did not get us out of a recession. He widened the gap between rich and poor by giving larger corporations huge tax breaks. Several people in his caucaus were also put on trail such as Mike Duffy for over spending and then there was the guy in Harper's caucas who made Homophobic remarks and you just can't say those things. . .then there was a guy who was caught on camera peeing into a cup in someone's home when he was a renovator and these are the people Harper puts into his caucas???? You can tell a lot about a person by the company they keep. Also, Stephen Harper has done nothing to inquire about an investigation into missing and murdered aboriginal rights. . .When the aboriginal communities were suffering from influenza several years back, they asked the gov't to send them more medication and doctors to help them and instead Harper sent over body bags. He made an issue of the Niqab when only 2% of women have ever asked to wear one during the swearing in ceremony. Harper also put out more attack ads than any other political party. I think that rubbed people the wrong way. He just doesn't have a clear grip on reality now a days. . .In todays age we need equality and respect for all humans and he clearly didn't show respect for Aboriginal people and respect for the middle class since he allowed the middle class to pay for everything. . .He also refused to meet with Liberal premier Kathy Wynne on several occasions when he had met with other premiers. . .so people guessed that he did that either because she was liberal, or she was a she or because she is a lesbian. . .IN either one of those cases, it shows that he doesn't respect equality and hasn't treated people equally. He also had nothing on his agenda about climate change and that is a key issue for young CAnadians especially. He also used terms like "new stock" and "old stock" in reference to Canadians and these are old fashioned terms to describe white supremacy. . .so these are the reasons that Canadians are fed up with him. As for Justin being for abortions etc. . .well . . .we need a gov't who is for women's rights and therefore the right for a woman to have control over what happens to her own body.
The next prime minister is likely going to be a Conservative. Justin Trudeau will probably stay on as the prime minister for as long as the Liberals retain power. Currently, there’s a race in the Conservative Party to replace interim leader Rona Ambrose. The strongest minority candidate in the race is Michael Chong, who’s half Chinese. Chong is a moderate Conservative, so if he somehow wins the race, there’s a good chance that with him as a leader, more people will vote Conservative, making him the first minority PM. There’s also Indo-Canadian Deepak Obhrai in the race, but he’s polling at 1–2%, so I doubt anything will come of him.Apart from Chong, there’s very few potential minority candidates for PM. But for the sake of speculation, let’s use statistics. 23 MPs right now fall into the ‘South Asian’ category. Effectively, 7% of the House of Commons is South Asian, and that’s an over-representation, considering only 5% of Canada is South Asian. However, that puts them as the biggest visible minority group, and in 2006, they surpassed aboriginals, making South Asians the biggest non-white group in Canada. So statistics favour a South Asian PM.Here’s the deal though; South Asians are predominantly liberal, particularly Pakistanis, who voted Liberal en-masse after Stephen Harper’s anti-Islam campaign in 2015. If the Conservatives were to take back the house, the south asian numbers would plummet. A group in Canada that’s growing faster than South Asians is Filipinos. Filipinos are the fastest-growing minority group, and they are one of the most Conservative groups. If the Tories beat Liberals to a minority PM, it will most likely be a Filipino.Nonetheless, I would put my money on South Asian.
Is it fair to believe the Conservatives will win the 2019 election?
I think Andrew Scheer has a chance if only because there's only one right-wing option. If someone doesn't like Trudeau but still doesn't trust Scheer, there's the NDP (lol), and Maxime Bernier's party isn't going to be a viable option at all. Both of the examples you provided had the same thing - vote splitting between Liberals and NDP allowed Conservatives to run up the middle and win. Personally, I prefer minority governments minus the propensity to trigger early elections with non-confidence votes. I don't think 38% of voters should be able to hand majority power to one party to rule as they see fit for four years before the next go around. I'd prefer it if the parties were forced to work with each other to do what was best for Canadians. But, that's the system we live in. Had Trudeau kept his word last time, we'd be headlong towards proportional representation, but that would be too democratic, I guess.
In order for the current deadlock to break, one of the big four (Conservative, Liberal, Bloc & NDP) will have to cease to exist or splinter. This seems least likely with the Conservatives, as they have just recently re-emerged as a unified party after a decade long split of the PC and Reform/Alliance parties. Therefore either a) the Bloc disappears as a federal party. While this may seem unlikely, if Gilles Duceppe leaves to lead the PQ and possibly (probably) become premier, he has no obvious successor in Ottawa. A smart campaign on the right talking about provincial rights and an unobtrusive federal government, or a smart campaign on the left reaching the more left-leaning Quebec voters and convincing them to be part of the government to get things done, rather than continuing to be simply a protest vote, could leave the BQ largely defeated and irrelevant in the future. Or, b) A Liberal-NDP (and possibly Green) merger, either actively, as in the vote and the convention where the PC"s and the Alliance formally merged, or passively, in a situation where one party becomes the dominant left wing choice and the other simply does not receive enough votes to remain relevant. This could happen either for either the Liberals with a "Don't throw your vote away" campaign, or for the NDP in a 'We're the real alternative to Harper" campaign.While all of these scenarios may not be very likely now, they are all possible What is more likely to happen in the short term is another Conservative minority, or even majority government. This would, I believe create the conditions in which all of the other parties consider their options, and the scenarios above start to become more attractive, even probable.
Definitely older white people, but there are a LOT of Chinese immigrants who support the conservatives, for whatever it may. I think its because the conservatives also support relatively conservative social values (which are still liberal by Chinese standards, mind). There are also random groups of fiscal conservatives and random groups of evangelicals dolloped like whipped cream in Alberta and the Fraser Valley bible and northern Ontario and even in Toronto itself.Canada is not as hyper-partisan as say the US is. Ridings change votes ALL THE TIME. Greater Vancouver flips parties like every election lol, and Quebec is the KING of swap elections. Canada is quite fickle politically, compared to the US and its hyper-partisanship. That is because in many ways the gap between conservatives and liberals in Canada isn’t as yawning as in the US. Many Canadians who vote solidly conservative would cringe at the American GOP today. (there are also Canadian conservatives who hope they would become MORE like the GOP, but they tend to keep quiet.)The Canadian Conservatives always have a shot, in most ridings nation-wide. Economic conservatives exist everywhere. Chinese immigrants tend to be very economically conservative and somewhat social conservative, leading to their “natural” afinity for the federal conservatives (and the BC Liberals where I’m from).The younger you are, the less likely they would vote conservatives, but its not as angry or hyper-partisan as in the USA still.