Will Bernie Sanders have the same popularity as he did in 2016 with a field this crowded?
Finally, the Democrat Party has decided to go all in on Democratic Socialism. AOC, established the paradigm with the Green New Deal. No need to recapitulate the bullet points of AOC’s manifesto. Everyone knows that.Almost all the declared candidates have endorsed the AOC Manifesto, either completely, or “aspirationally”.Since AOC is not yet ready, nor is she eligible to run for POTUS, and since Sanders is the pioneer of modern day “Democratic Socialism”, I’d have to say Bernie will be even more popular.The timing of this movement is not fortuitous, however. Two recent developments loom as problematic optics:1.) The California Bullet Train debacle.2.) The collapse of Venezuela.It will be an interesting election cycle, to be sure.
Why Donald Trump is winning the Republican nomination now?
It's a combination of two factors: 1) Everybody underestimated him 2) His enormous appeal to the Republican BASE (not the Tea Party crazies)1. UnderestimationWhen he first came into the race people just thought of him as a circus show. They thought he was just a buffoon out to get more ratings for his TV show (which was the initial plan actually: How Trump did it). They didn't take him seriously as a candidate. The GOP establishment and others thought they'd see this act before with candidates like Michelle Bachmann and this sudden Trump fever at the start of the election would run it's course. They were wrong, and they are going to pay for it because Donald Trump has so much momentum right now that I doubt Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich are going to catch up. According to the Rolling Stone, every Republican who has won the New Hamphire and South Carolina primaries has gone on the win the nomination. If the GOP had the wisdom to rally behind a single candidate early, they may have been able to beat Trump. They let months go by where Trump was the only candidate getting major media attention, and with most Republicans (well most Americans really) being low-information voters, what they hell did they think would happen?2. Appeal Donald Trump is winning because he has his finger squarely on the pulse of what the MODERATE Republican base wants. See a lot of people, particularly my more naive liberal friends, think Trump is appealing to the super-conservative religious nuts in the Republican party. They are dead wrong. For America's religious extremists, Ted Cruz is the candidate of choice. Trump's base are actually the moderate, working class Republicans. They're the type of guys (and gals) who would typically vote for Jeb Bush. They think Trump is their politically incorrect messiah, here to free them from the endless torrent of cookie-cutter politicians they've had to deal with since Reagan. His tasteless remarks, his boorish attitude, his ridiculous "build a wall and make Mexico pay for it" promises, everything liberals like me hate about him, THEY LOVE IT. It's a real Bandwagon effect, once you get on the Trump train, there is no getting off.
How should Paul Ryan respond to Hillary Clinton's alt right speech?
It looks like there’s no safety net here, at least for Ryan. McCain has stood for moderate Republicans all his career until the party decided to gamble on the radicals. Radicals like the TEA Party; who put Ryan into the Congress.This will either end McCain’s career on a humiliating, and largely undeserved, note or allow McCain and those who acquiesced to the radical party line to emerge. The moderates can retake the leadership and, maybe, the country will have a government that works for everyone — instead of a cynical oligarchy and their bought-and-sold indoctrinated patsies.The problem with this scenario is illustrated by Trump himself, and by his rise to the nomination. This 30–40% of the Republican electorate — estimated at more than 10% of the country overall — is extraordinarily activist and vocal. They appear to be dedicated extremists, radicalized to a new Trumpian fundamentalism. They will not just go away; or, more correctly, will not go away quickly enough.Conservatives, by nature and definition, like to see an orderly progression of change. Quick, dramatic changes unsettle them. As demonstrated so many times, when conservatives get unsettled, they tend to become destructive and self destructive.Conservatives, it’s been said, destroy what they can’t control The question before the Republican leadership and the influential oligarchs is How much of what will they destroy?I imagine there are a number of thinkers already looking to find ways to salvage as much of the Republican Party as possible. It’s not an impossible task, and there’s plenty of talent to accomplish their goals, if someone can figure out what those goals are soon.Hillary’s speech pushed the sleeping dragons into a corner.She’s positioned herself to offer conciliation and cooperation, even unification on shared goals. The sort of thing the radicals have spit back for most of the last three decades. She’s taken a positive, pro-active leadership position. We’ll all have to see if it’s accepted, and what consolations, betraying the level of sincerity and integrity, will be demanded.