Is Ukraine losing the war against Russia?
This reminds me of a bad marriage situation.Imagine that Ukraine was betrothed with Crimea on a whim by old jester Nikita Khrushchev. At that time all lived in the same big house, called USSR. Later in 1990s the house started to fall apart and the big family decided to divorce. However, there was a thorny issue of nuclear missiles non-proliferation. In order to resolve it peacefully, Boris Yeltsin and other leading masters of ceremony signed a memorandum, according to which, Ukraine would abandon any nuclear ambitions as long as beautiful Crimea would marry Ukraine. And so they lived happily ever after for 20 years.Comes winter 2013/2014. Ukraine got sick. He has expelled a tzar from his head. Without a tzar in his head he won't be himself upon recovery. Beautiful Crimea feels that she does not want to spend the rest of eternity in such marriage and begs her mother Russia to take her back home, which is promptly arranged. Upon slight recovery, Ukraine realizes that Crimea has left him. He is very angry with mother Russia. He calls it an act of Russian aggression and he cannot find peace with himself. Yet, deep in his soul, Ukraine knows that it is Crimea who wanted to leave him in the first place, and there is no use in retaliating to mother Russia, who gave beautiful Crimea a shelter to spare her from imminent civil war.So, is Ukraine losing the against Russia? Unfortunately, yes, for as long as Ukrainians thinks of Crimea as some empty territory that they own, rather than a home of 2 million people who have made their historical choice in 2014. Let it go.
Do you think that Ukraine will be part of Russia soon?
Actually Russia never planned to occupy the whole Ukraine. Putin allegedly proposed Poland to annex West Ukraine just in the way Poland itself was divided by Nazi Germany and USSR. He doesn't consider these territories as a part of Russian World.Take a look at the map from Dima Vorobiev answer, it actually reflects pre-war election stats by pro-Russian vs pro-EU political parties. It has changed a lot since then. Even Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens strongly oppose the whole Putin ideology of extending Russia to all territories where Russian is spoken.Russia annexed Crimea and created two puppet states on the small piece of territory where pro-Russian political views where prevailing. Even in the Kharkiv region that is neighboring to Donbass pro-Russian views had no majority. Support of Russia significantly declined since then when people start to see what the Russian World actually is.And in terms of military feasibility, there is no realistic scenario for Russia to occupy Ukraine without using nuclear weapon. Ukrainian army changed a lot since 2014, both technically and morally. Ukraine probably can’t win full scale war with Russia but can definitely make human loss of Russians unacceptable. And even in case of successful occupation controlling 40 millions of non-loyal inhabitants is extremely hard.Instead of occupation Russia prefers internal political destabilization, media war against current Ukrainian government with a lot’s of paid trolls, sabotage at military warehouses, murder of significant opinion makers.
Who would win USA vs. Russia (with and without nukes)
Considering Russian military doctrine is so heavily dependent on nuclear weapons, once the US dealt with the elite of the Russian forces, it would be a one sided bloodbath. Also few realize the US has a larger military who is heavily experienced in combat. The vast majority of Russian troops even the elite units have not see combat. Experience is often a decisive factor in the early stages of a war. In the air and on the sea, it would be one sided, but on the land, it would be a closer battle, but yet again the Russians would be wore down by their heavy reliance on elite forces and weaker air power.
What does Putin want? Is he a threat to the EU?
Vladimir Putin wants to Make Russia Great Again.He wants Russia to be the dominant power in the world. Respected and feared. He wants all his Russian oligarch friends to be even wealthier than they already are. He wants to be remembered as the greatest leader Russia has ever had and the one who returned Russia to its former glory and beyond.He knows that an all out war is not going to give him what he wants and is not something he can win so he has created numerous proxy wars and subterfuge. He makes use of millions of useful idiots in America, Europe and the Middle East. He is a master manipulator.Is he a treat to the EU? Absolutely. He is also a threat to the USA and therefore the entire world. For as the USA devolves into chaos so do the economies of the world.Just look carefully and objectively at what is going on in the world today. Especially in the EU and America. You will find Putin’s fingerprints on much of the chaos. Follow the money. Follow the sources of refugees. Follow the rise of nationalism. It is unforgivable that one government should so cynically destroy the lives of so many millions of people just for their own selfish and short sighted ends.This is not a good long term strategy for Russia. Eventually this whole strategy will implode and Russia will be harmed just as much as the rest of the world and will be considered a pariah for many decades after that.My family is Russian as are many of my friends. I feel badly for the people in Russia who only have access to Russian news sources and who really believe the government propaganda. Who really believe that the world is against Russia and Russians. They are being duped and used. It is a shame that such a wonderful people and ancient and rich culture should have such terrible leaders.