Out of the two US presidential candidates which one do you think is worse, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?
Strange as it may sound, the question evokes in me a conflict between my gut and my heart. My gut reaction is the country is going into a period of anarchy where the better angels of our nature are betrayed and lost from sight. In that country, I suppose someone like Donald Trump is the better president, although I’m at a loss to say why.I don’t see Trump holding the country together, unifying or building. He seems intent on doing the exact opposite. I do see his movement as a reaction to the excesses of political correctness but for all the rhetoric, that seems trivial.Hillary I see as the president if I feel the country will last another hundred years. That there will be a United States to lead the world further in the directions of the Founders and the Age of Reason. That may sound opposite or obtuse to some who’ve internalized the rhetoric of Originalists, but I feel and think it’s accurate.The conflict between these two impressions sorrows me overall.
Has Trump made you change your opinion about your country?
I am born, raised Chinese. For the past 5 years I lived in America.And yes. Trump indeed has changed my opinion about China, and is more balanced. “Whatever works, works” is probably the best way to describe my attitude now.Before Trump:I thought democracy, in which citizens vote for their governors is the better way of election. America may not be the right example of direct democracy. But on the scale of 1–10, perhaps I can give it a solid 6. By which I mean, the majority’s votes eventually will matter to a great extent in America. I had faith that, people as a collective will always make the right choice.After Trump:I now question people’s political literacy, and perhaps even think that most voters are, in fact, not well-equipped to participate in political decisions. China is an example of technocratic dictatorship/ aristocratic democracy, with a very strong authoritarian flavor. An average Chinese citizen, who is not affiliated with the CCP, will never participate, directly, or indirectly, to select their president/general secretary. Although there is a voting system within CCP, but the process is very much a “closed door” to the general public. The selected Chinese technocrats, although they may be selected not by people’s will, but they need to be more or less tested as policymakers in the first place, and public figures who at the very least, know how to properly behave. I had always thought that this kind of system is outdated, and not good for long-term development. Perhaps I still do a little bit.But for all I know, China could possibly have collapsed had it given its citizens a complete power to directly vote for their governors from the get-go, because simply, I don’t think most Chinese, myself included, have been politically literate enough to vote for anything. Crowds are easy to sway. You throw at them some ear-pleasing, empty promises about job security, tax reduction, better eduction and life quality, despite not having any realistic concrete plans but otherwise appear confident, most people would just follow you like naive ducklings not knowing who is the real deal.
Why has Donald Trump's candidacy been successful so far?
Plenty of reasons for this (and I'm the first to admit I didn't think he would get the nomination when he announced his candidacy)Economics: Hollowing out of US middle and working class. Globalization and US leadership on global issues...isn't actually working for a large swathe of the American public. They want to go after the establishment; "kick the bums out," and Trump is an ample opportunity to do that.Identity Politics: Obama is America's first black president, and I personally think that's pretty cool. But there's not much recognition that a lot of older white people feel they can no longer identify with what the United States today looks like. Younger Americans are much more multicultural--particularly Hispanic. They generally support immigration. They're much less religious. They're more likely to support drug legalization, oppose the death penalty, support gay marriage. Obama has empowered all of these views...while not having much time for those "clinging to their guns and their religion," as he put it. Trump is a big screw you to all of those people.Social Media: Trump is a master. I'd say he's the world's most effective troll with a truly significant following. He had vastly more followers than any other Republican candidate (only Ben Carson was close). And the twitter folk tell me that despite having roughly as many followers as Hillary, he had 10x the impressions in the past month. That's the way more and more people are getting their news...and it also is framed by the candidate himself (which the mainstream media then picks up on), rather than having the agenda set by someone else.Regular Media: Falling apart, needs ratings and, relatedly, ad revenue. Trump delivers. And so we've seen literally billions in free media coverage.There are other reasons -- ability to be an "everyman" aspirational rich person as opposed to the more effete/cosmopolitanism of Romney; narcissism that allows for relentless I'm the greatest which plays better than you might think in politics; extremely effective speechmaking through repetition of simple slogans, etc.Ok on to the next one...
If Trump's campaign is crashing and burning as the media says, why is he down only 6 points?
Six percent sounds like a small number. It seems especially small compared to 100, which is what six points is a tiny little segment of. But built as we are, with squishy pink brains to do our thinking for us, we’re easily fooled by seemingly small numbers, most especially when those numbers are percentages— of anything. So I’m going to ignore discussing the science of polling for a moment, and focus on something far simpler: fractions.Keep in mind that we’re talking about the voting public in the USA, the roughly 200 million people both eligible and possibly willing to vote (actual census data put the total population at somewhere between 300–350 million souls). What this means is that 1% of the voting public, is approximately equal to two million real people.Now what this means is, when polls say that someone drops six points, that seemingly small number six out of a hundred in fact represents the opinion of Twelve Million People. Just for contrast, the entire story of the Jews originally fleeing Egypt, was said to consist of ¼ that number— at that time, the population of a nation. And when we’re talking about the poll you cite, of Trump’s polls shifting six points, what this boils down to is that the polls which the news organizations trust reflect that 12,000,000 people have, just in the last three weeks, changed their opinion about the man, for the worse.Even if these polls were all faked, it’s not an exaggeration for anyone who believes them to say that that kind of a mood swing among that many millions of people in that short of a time period is “crashing and burning”.