How Likely Is Nuclear War

How likely is Trump to start a nuclear war?

Slim to none.Firstly let me dish out some rough numbers in terms of how many weapons each country has, as well as the those weapons that are “operational”-Please note that all of these numbers are rough estimates-Here is where I found the numbers: Fact Sheet: Who Has Nuclear Weapons, And How Many Do They Have?Russia has 7,300 nuclear weapons of which 1,790 are operational.The United States has 7000 nuclear weapons of which 1,750 are operational.China has 260 nuclear weapons of which 0 are operational.Here is a chart with more estimations of total weapons (includes both operational and non-operational)From the figures, it is clear that it is totally unreasonable for China to go to nuclear war with the United States. Not only do they have ZERO operational weapons, but their total number of weapons (~260) only represents 3% of the United State’s total stockpile. The United States could easily obliterate China with their 1,750 currently operational weapons before China even had a chance to re-arm their deactivated nukes.Now let’s look at the possibility of nuclear war with Russia. Both the United States and Russia have similar numbers of total weapons, both operational and deactivated. From this we can assume that both countries would have an even chance at winning a nuclear war against one another.However, Russia and the United States would NEVER start a nuclear war between each other. This is because of the MAD (Mutual assured destruction - Wikipedia) doctrine. The doctrine essentially states that a full-scale nuclear war between two nations would cause the mutually assured destruction of both the defender and the attacker. It is based on the theory of deterrence which states that the threat of weapons of mass destruction against an enemy prevents the enemy from using WMD against you.In other words, there would be no winner. The United States and Russia would both be obliterated by each other’s WMD. This doctrine is why a nuclear war between the United States and USSR did not occur during the cold war.So the chances that Trump could, or would start a nuclear war with Russia or China? Extremely slim, to none.

How likely is an India-Pakistan nuclear war?

Most certainly a BIG NO.According to studies done at Rutgers, the University of Colorado-Boulder and UCLA. Even if the war is fought with only 100 out of the 250 Nuclear weapons (currently available in India-Pakistan arsenals). Below will be the direct and indirect consequences on the Asian subcontinent and the entire world.20 million people in India and Pakistan will die as a result of these strikes.Millions of tons of smoke will be generated and 1 to 5 million tons of smoke will move up to the stratosphere .The smoke will block the sunlight from reaching the surface of the earth.The temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere would become colder than those experienced during the pre-industrial age (~2–5 C lower than the current temperatures).This cold weather would also cause a 10% decline in average global rainfall and a decrease in the Asian summer monsoon.The changes in the global climate would cause significantly shortened growing seasons in the Northern Hemisphere for at least a few years to come. Leading to food shortages across the globe.As a direct consequence of the food shortages, hundred millions of already hungry people, who now depend upon food imports will be starved to death in the years following the nuclear conflict.25-40% of the protective ozone layer would be destroyed at the mid-latitudes, and 50-70% would be destroyed at northern high latitudes. Massive increases of harmful UV light would result, with significantly negative effects on human, animal and plant life.Considering the above effects globally. Even if India and Pakistan find war as the only solution to their conflicts. The world super powers will certainly chip in to to stop the havoc that the conflict between the two nuclear armed states in the Indian subcontinent will bring to the entire world.

How likely is it nuclear war breaks out in the next decade?

Nuclear war is not likely, in my view. Doesn’t matter who occupies the White House - the risk of starting something that could escalate out-of-control is too great. A full nuclear war could mean the end of humanity and that includes the family of the White House occupant.Others may disagree, but I don’t believe Mr. Trump is that irrational. Not a supporter of his many decisions, but that doesn’t mean I believe he will start a nuclear holocaust. I also believe that Secretary of Defense Mattis, Secretary of State Tillerson, and VP Pence are not inclined to use the nuclear option. The protocol to launch has a meeting with top military advisors first and I think that is where the launch decision is voided (source: Here's how easy it is for the US president to launch a nuclear weapon).One also has to ask who would be the target of U.S. nuclear weapons. North Korea? Why? The U.S. has enough conventional power to level the country and render them ineffective. Further, China and Russia would step in before the situation totally blew up. While I have no direct or indirect knowledge, I suspect China likely has an imbedded agent that would eliminate Kim Jong-un if that call is made.There is no other pending risk to the United States that would require a nuclear response. Iran is annoying, certainly, but Israel and the U.S. would take them out, if needed. None of the other nuclear powers directly threatens the U.S. at this time.

If nuclear war starts, how likely is it that Minnesota will get nuked?

I’ts very unlikely there will be all out, 100 or more nukes used, nuclear war soon, or that Minnesota will get nuked. Most of these questions seem to be coming up because of N.Korea. Kim probably hasn’t even got 1 ICBM yet he can stick a warhead on that could stand the heat of re-entry, get past the layered defences & land in the US. BUT we don’t know for sure.It’s even more unlikely that he has more than half a dozen & would have the range be able to hit Minnesota.That said, they are “ramping up” talk of military action by the US on N. Korea happening in the next few months.It’s not totally impossible the odd nuke from Kim might land in the US, just unlikely, but with a bit of fallout sheltering knowledge most US folks would be just fine. I doubt that China or Russia would get involved, so total WW3 is very unlikely.If an all out WW3 happened including the US & Russia, then Minnesota might get hit. With a total exchange of hundreds of nukes there would certainly be likely to be fallout.All out nuclear war would be very grim. BUT WW3 might not actually involve that many nukes. We don’t know. Back in the Cold War, General Sir John Hackett wrote the book : “The Third World War.” The fighting was all conventional until just 2 nukes were used at the end, in a “tit for tat” destruction of 2 cities. I doubt just 2 nukes would be used, but it may “only” be a few dozen.Anyone who says they know exactly how & when WW3 will start, be fought, & end, must have a crystal ball. It will probably happen one day, possibly within 50 years. I believe some (a few) nukes will be used within 5, 10 or 15 years. Within 5 years is my “best guess,” Could even be some nukes used in 2018 due to N. Korea or 1 from terrorism.WW3 might just be the first war with some nukes used. Then they might start WW4 etc., if the horrors of the first war using nukes didn’t shock some action to ensure it never happened again. Humans being hell bent on fighting, I doubt that somehow.

How likely is a nuclear war between the United States and North Korea (2018-2020)?

Answer: I do not think the dictator who is believed to be the son of a god. Wants to die but in the name of family honor and 65 years of perpetuating war. He just may suicide himself and all of his people just to taste victory. After all he is starving his entire nation while he eats very well. Because, all it takes right now to defeat the Americans is to launch an EMP specific nuclear tipped ballistic from the coast of California, from the Gulf of California, from the gulf of mexico, from the Atlantic seaboard or from the gulf of Alaska or from all of them at once. All those nuclear tipped ballistic missiles need to do is go straight up and reach that secret altitude and detonate. Then all of the USA, parts of canada and Mexico. Will be in the 1400’s all over again. All technology stops working and there will be no recovery. More than 100 million Americans are expected to die in the first year alone. But, you say we have anti ballistic missiles in California and Alaska. Yes, we do. But, there is a such thing as being on the wrong side of a triangle. For a straight up launch causes the USA to be on the wrong side of the triangle.Original question:How likely is a nuclear war between the United States and North Korea (2018-2020)?

How likely is a nuclear war sometime during the next four years?

4 years is not a very long time but nevertheless we should have a look at how a nuclear war could break out. Now the countries that are confirmed to be in possession of some form of Nuclear weapons are the following: United States of America, France, United Kingdom, North Korea, Russia, China, India and Pakistan. We are also quite sure that Israel has nuclear weapons and Iran may be developing some sort of Nuclear Arsenal.If we look at current world relations, we have 3 Nuclear powers on one side and these are France, the USA and the UK (we could also include Israel here) whilst on the other side we have Russia and China (Pakistan and Iran could also be on this side). At the moment all these countries are trading well and despite Trump’s comments about China, the USA cannot stop trading with China due to them being the largest exporters in the world. This means that in the next 4 years China and the USA will certainly not go to war and use Nuclear weaponry.On the other hand we have Russia. Now Russia is not exactly on the best terms with NATO due to the recent events in Ukrain however, Putin is a clever man and despite the new Satan 2 bomb being very powerful, he will not go to war with the US and NATO and especially with Trump in office for the next 4 years.But wait, what about N.Korea or India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan are nearly always fighting over some piece of land but it has not been a full blown war in a very long time. Both of their Nuclear Arsenals are not the most advanced but act more like deterrents meaning they will not go to war with nukes any time soon. And finally, North Korea. Their Nuclear arsenal is nowhere near the level of the other nuclear powers and all of Kim Jung Un’s threats are very empty. In other words he is all bark and no bite.So to conclude, there will not be a nuclear war in the next 4 years or for the foreseeable future since the majority of us, human beings, are born with brains that tell us: Nuclear War = Lots of Death.