What is your economic forecast?
Well, look for some layoffs from the auto makers but the economy will remain strong. I think housing starts will start to improve. The real test for the economy is the 2008 election If the Democrats take the white house the economy will take a dump.
Forecasts of economic growth have consistently?
http://oi44.tinypic.com/2rqn98w.jpg( image) Forecasts of economic growth have consistently options: overestimated economic growth from 1990—1998 underestimated economic growth from 1990—1998 overestimated economic growth from 1996—1999 underestimated economic growth from 1996—1999 forecast correctly economic growth from 1990—1999
Why is economic forecasting difficult?
Economic forecasting is difficult for several reasons:First, economics is not an exact science. It can tell you in many cases what the likely outcome would look like, but it does not have universal quantifiable laws like e.g. physics. People behaviour is diverse and dependent on many factors, all cases and all countries are different from one another. So the actual outcome might turn out quite far from the forecasted one.Second, circumstances are ever changing. Random unexpected stuff keeps happening all the time in the economy, ranging from natural disasters to tech progress leaps. Of course it is not even remotely possible to fully account for those kinds of things, especially in longer term forecasts.Third, people with limited understanding of what to expect from economic forecasts keep demanding that economists correctly predict the future. This includes all kinds of top-managers or gov officials exerting pressure and then blaming their mistakes on incorrect forecasts. If economists could predict the future they would not need you, puny mortals :) Forecasting is your best guess given a set of assumptions - change the latter and the former will also change.And as with all kinds of forecasts, people do not appreciate it when your forecast turn out correct (like, that is your job, eh..). But be wrong once and everyone loses their minds, no matter if your forecast was wrong for legitimate reasons.
How accurate and reliable are the economic forecasts done by World Bank and IMF?
You couldn't have phrased the question better. Forecasting of any kind may be most reliable from such authorities. However, both organizations admit to a tremendous amount of uncertainty in what happens in the world at any given moment. The events referred to have widespread economic impacts that forecasts could not account for. This means that their own forecasting has severe limitations in an uncertain world. If you look at the unpredictable economic shocks in the last decade alone, you'll understand such limitations.
Forecast of economic growth have consistently underestimated or overestimated economics growth?
Neither. The general tendency is to assume that the future will be like the immediate past. But there are always external changes that are not anticipated and so not factored into the predictions. That means the results can be higher or lower than the prediction. There are many examples: unexpected wars breaking out and unexpected resolutions (recall the falling of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union, etc.); unexpectedly bad "weather" (Krakatoa blowing its top and ruining agriculture for several years, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa#Th... Hurricane Katrina, etc.) and unexpectedly good weather; etc. And the further out the forecast, the less accurate it is going to be. Who can say what energy prices are going to be like 20 years from now? Will any the alternative energy sources turn out to be as cheap as their promotors claim or are they going to be the equivalent of $200/barrel oil?
Economics HW! Please Help?
a. all speculative markets crash and regain confidence very slowly. most of the wealth of businessmen are in those markets so the decision makers of economy behave as stated in the first sentence. b.economists are paid servants directly or indirectly an the governments invariable caters for needs of businessmen but usually the call is taken by the PEOPLE and so the forecasts always fall. In short, you cannot force a common man to buy or sell. c. The spending injects more cash in terms of payments and salaries into the economy and makes demands and prices to rise and also provides refreshing capital to sick businesses. d. pre-WWII the economies were mixture of real and virtual outputs and the balance tilted made panics and crashes. post -WWII all economies are in proximity of potential / full virtuality so any trace of reality does not make any sense. Note :- Mixture of air and water make bubbles , not air alone and not water alone can do that.