If The Republicans Lose The House In 2014 Because Of The Debt Ceiling

With a "republican" in the white house, will republicans in the house and senate be concerned with the national debt and budget deficit?

Of course! We Republicans care at least as much as Democrats. And Americans know that Republicans care more about the debt and deficit more than Democrats. But you knew that.What you’re likely referring to is the tax plan Trump floated yesterday. Taxes are always a political issue. If you want higher taxes, run on it. If you want lower taxes, run on it. Make a case, ask the American public for it. If they agree, you get what you want. But it’s always a conversation with the opposite view. If you want to raise taxes on everyone, you get less votes, so mostly Democrats raise the taxes on the people with lots of money, because they just lose their votes. And Republicans like to reduce the taxes on everyone, because they can get a lot more votes than by just reducing the taxes on the wealthy.The problem is, most of the poor don’t pay much income tax. They effectively pay zero tax, up to the poverty line. So, you cannot gain their vote by reducing their taxes, as it’s already effectively zero. So you already have a section of the country not paying taxes, and ask yourself if it’s a good thing for a third of America (and 72 percent of ITIN filers paid no income tax ) to not pay any taxes.Do Democrats care that some people are not paying anything? Not really. They seem to care that the 1% aren’t paying enough.But the 1% pay 40% of the income tax revenue. That doesn’t sound like they aren’t paying their fair share. They seem to be paying a lot. And the top 20% pay almost all the tax revenue.I think they are the ones that are doing well, so it’s ok that they pay more. But perhaps it’s ok to consider a reduction in taxes, as long as it produces more jobs. If it does not produce jobs, it’s a bad plan because debt and deficit increases.So, in my mind, the goal is job creation. Anything other is not desired; increasing consumption, or creating wealth from investing, not a goal. If it increases jobs, it results in more income taxes, more happiness, and Republicans can declare a win. And that’s why Democrats oppose it: they don’t want Republicans to succeed, because if they do, America succeeds. This test is therefore easy to measure: Job Creation should exceed 280-300K per month after 1 year. If it doesn’t hit this, we don’t get what we wanted from the tax reduction, and Republicans should be replaced. If we do, we should return Republicans in 2018.

Was the Republican Congress too tough on President Obama?

“Should” is a relative thing. There’s no question that working with President Obama would’ve helped the country, but this is not the Republicans’ primary objective. Their goal is to gain power, not to help the country - if they have to harm the country to gain power, they will do so eagerly and willingly.There are a number of issues where compromising with the President would have advanced the country:The ACA. Republicans had some legitimate concerns about Obamacare; rather than hash these concerns out they absolutely refused to participate in the process and in the end the ACA became law over their objections. Its flaws - such as they are - are as much the fault of Republicans’ unwillingness to work with the Administration and Democrats in Congress as they are the Presidents’.Funding Regulatory Agencies. Republicans used the power of the purse to stop financial regulatory agencies from doing their jobs effectively. This enabled several major banks to commit major violations of the law, punishing consumers along the way. For some reason the media hasn’t connected Republican intransigence to this issue, but I doubt it will escape the voters’ notice.Funding the Government as a whole. Republicans decided to use the budgetary process as a vehicle for making another useless attack on the President. The result was a massive economic slowdown in the 1st quarter of 2013 as the government was shut for several weeks (the first quarter of contraction since the 2008 recession - Republicans literally killed the economy to score political points).Interfering with the President’s Foreign Policy Powers. The Constitution gives absolute authority over foreign policy powers to the President. Republicans decided that they would ignore the constitution, and attempted to interfere with the President’s negotiation of various international agreements (a free trade agreement with South Korea, negotiations with Israel and Palestine, reaching an agreement to ban nuclear weapons in Iran, negotiating trade deals with the EU and China, etc). This interference caused obvious harm to the United States’ security and fiscal health, but it also weakened the nation globally as we were perceived as disloyal pigs instead of a nation united internationally if divided internally. They also opened the door to future interference with the foreign policy powers.

Did the Republican Party lose political capital with the government shutdown?

The view from the UK is that the Republican party are trying to sabotage the US economy and destroy the US: this being the case, it is remarkable that anyone votes for them at all.The shutdown was an economic disaster and entirely self-inflicted. No one could argue it was a good thing, not even Republicans: they instead tried a Patriotic flag waving approach by being seen at iconic closed government sites: war memorials etc.The approach of attacking honest law abiding hard working people will surely be counter productive.The shutdown did not win over any of the swing voters. Opposition for the sake of it is tiresome and negative. The big problem the Republicans have is that they can't say that they normally work with the government, but on important issues they take a stand: they oppose everything. The Republicans come across as childish and unprofessional: using the nuclear option of a shutdown or causing chaos is hugely unpopular.The press are just so pro-Republican it is absurd. Supposing the same government workers laid off had gone on strike for higher pay: they would have been vilified as holding the economy to ransom, disrespecting the dead and sabotaging the US. The Republicans were not cited for any of this, but this was their agenda.It isn't even a majority of Republicans that want this, but the current incumbents seen cowardly in not standing up to the extremists. If the Republicans aren't given a severe mauling in 2014 then they will see their behaviour vindicated and carry on in the same unhelpful way.This is about Republican attempts to destroy democracy. If there was massive support for their cause, like street demonstrations, they might have a point, but they are purely protecting the excessive profits of health insurers against the voice of the US public.

If Paul Ryan became Speaker of the House and pushed the Tea Party agenda, would that help or hinder the Republican chances in the 2016 elections?

I agree with Ian Marshall's confusion over the "Tea Party Agenda".   A couple of years ago it was, "Force President Obama to sign legislation defunding the ACA.  If he doesn't do it, shut down the government."  The current version seems to include defunding Planned Parenthood.  And maybe National Public Radio.  And the threats include defaulting on the National Debt.If that's the Tea Party agenda, andIf Paul Ryan pushes that agenda in the House of Representatives, Then there will be another government shutdown and, perhaps, huge changes in the value of US Treasury bonds and bills.Last time around the voters blamed the Republicans more than President Obama.  The Democrats kept the Presidency.  Republicans have since made gains in the House and Senate.  Republicans in the House doing something that crashes retiree 401(k),  IRA, and pension plans is the only thing I can think of that would lose them their HR majority in a single election.As of 2015-Oct-24, it appears that Ryan has support from the Freedom Caucus with an implicit agreement not to shut down the government or default on the debt.  So it may be that the Tea Party Agenda is now, "Let's act like adults for the next 13 months and see if we can't win the Presidency."No one knows what will happen.EDIT:  As of 2015-Nov-02 a budget has been passed and the debt ceiling raised.  The Tea Party tactics of a few years ago appear to have been abandoned.  No new Agenda has appeared.