What Does Putin Have To Gain By Taking Over Ukraine

Does Putin want to take over all of Ukraine?

Well, I know a fair number of Ukraine immigrants in the US, and that is precisely what they fear.In WW2, the Wehrmacht welcomed them as liberators, until the atrocities began.There is a large Ukrainian church, and when the USSR broke up, the entire large sign in front of the church was covered with a banner. “Thank God at last, Ukraine free!!!!”The answer that quotes a 1948 document as an indicator of present US intentions is preposterous. And, it fails to cite similar Soviet documents of the period.The US has no intention, nor any use for a port in Sevastopol. The US would hope that Ukraine is left independent, and had they joined NATO, they would have. It was only fear of immediate Russian invasion that prevented them from signing.I wonder now, if the regret it. With Putin insidiously creeping more an more to stifle Ukraine as an independent entity. But, as always, I’m sure he will find a suitable puppet, negating the need for the Russians to do anything militarily.I am prepared to predict results of the next election in Ukraine. A Putin puppet will get 90% of the vote, with a voter turnout of 90.6%.

What does Russia gain by obtaining territory in the eastern part of Ukraine? Do they have any resources that Moscow needs?

TL;DR: blocking Ukraine from joining EU and NATO, and blackmailing Ukraine to accept Russia’s annexation of CrimeaRussia’s official position is that the “special regions” in E.Ukraine not controlled by the Ukrainian government are Ukrainian (not Russian) territory and should eventually be returned under control of the Ukrainian govt. However, Russia wantssignificant autonomy for those regions with a veto power over Ukraine‘s foreign policy and military decisions (enough to block Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO)Ukraine to officially accept that Crimea is a part of Russia, and Russia will in return “use its influence over insurgents” to help Ukraine re-establish control over E.Ukraine (if Ukraine does that, the West will probably drop the econ sanctions)Given that Russia supplies its two puppet regimes in E.Ukraine with money, weapons, ammunition, gasoline, intelligence, political cover and military specialists, it would be easy to “use its influence” - the two juntas would quickly collapse if they try to make it on their own. Something very similar happened to Srpska Krajina many years ago when Serbia withdrew support and the Croatian military moved in. Of course, Russia has greater resources than Serbia, so this may take a while.Russia does not have much use for those areas in E.Ukraine, as it has large coal-mining, chemical and metallurgical industries. Social payments to people living there would be large enough to make the areas unattractive for annexation, that is unless most people leave (which is what Russia is encouraging by promoting violence and supplying weapons, ammo and fuel).Will Russia’s plan work? - in the short term, it may slow down Ukraine’s joining the EU and in the intermediate term can make joining NATO much harder. Crimea will not be recognized as Russian, unless Russian agents take over the Ukrainian govt and parliament. In the meantime, Russia is losing a lot of money through Western sanctions, and its oil infrastructure is slowly deteriorating. So, in the long term, Ukraine is going to remain independent, and Russia’s economy is going to shrink as a fraction of the world economy (it is now somewhere between Canada and Australia). If Russian leadership realizes this at some point, they will change the course. If not, Russia will eventually shrink to the point where the course will be changed for them.

Why does Putin want Crimea?

I’ve done this with citations of Constitutions and Laws so many times . . . let’s try simplifying.Does everybody know that Crimea was given to Ukraine by Khrushchev? Let’s expand just a wee bit on that. Crimea was transferred from Russia to Ukraine by decree of the Supreme Soviet. The USSR was a federation, Russia and Ukraine were two of its member states, and it decreed the transfer of administration of Crimea from one to the other.Okay, so whatever Russia had over Crimea, Ukraine now had. What was it?Could the USSR have turned around and transferred Crimea back to Russia? Of course. Why not? It was obviously USSR’s call here.What transferred here was not sovereignty over Crimea. USSR kept that.Putin wanted Crimea because it was a corrupt and dirty little backroom deal that frustrated Crimea’s ongoing desperate attempts to break free from Ukraine’s corruption and bullying. When Crimea declared independence in 1992, Ukraine’s response was to threaten to steal the Soviet nuclear weapons that were installed on Ukraine’s territory but not under her control.Both little problems disappeared roughly together. Crimean independence was crushed, her constitution annuled, her government disbanded. Ukraine joined the non-proliferation treaty.When Putin took office, there were a dozen existential questions facing him. If there was a problem in Crimea, it was not near the top of the list. Then the Orange Revolution was exposed and discredited, and the 2010 government sitting in Kiev had been voted for overwhelmingly in Crimea. Things might not be ideal for Crimea, but they appeared to be tolerable.Came 2014, that government in Kiev was under threat. Busloads of Crimeans drove to Kiev to demonstrate in its favour. They watched Ukrainian nationalism resurgent, unarmed policemen set on fire, snipers randomly killing police and demonstrators from the roof of the Maidan HQ, the government fall.On the way home, their busses were stopped by Nazi Maidanites. Twenty people are missing; some may be in hiding. Some were left dead on the highway.It was Russia’s honour on the line. To keep turning a blind eye to Crimea’s struggle for independence when it reached the point of coup-d’état, assassination and massacres was no longer an option.