What chance would a moderate Republican, running as an Independent, have at upsetting the 2020 election enough to defeat Trump?
Somebody wasn’t paying attention in 2016.All those moderate and “Establishment” Republicans running in the primaries were flatly ignored by the public. Part of that was the Democratic cabal’s exceptionally short-sighted tactic of “choosing” Trump as the Republican candidate by having him dominate broadcast time (and ho, ho, ho on that backfire!), but Trump as a phenomenon strongly signals something.What he signals is that increasing numbers of Americans are fed up with the progressive “Blue Model” that has government growing increasingly intrusive in our lives, limiting our freedoms and our pocketbooks. Trump has delivered big-time—a roaring economy and an ongoing rollback of the spewing effluvia from the bowels of Democratic regulatory dungeons. In doing so, he has personally dominated “the best” in both parties.Since Reagan, when we last enjoyed some success safeguarding our liberty, all those moderate Repubs have stayed hidden under the bed while the Democrats loot our house. The Establishment Republicans actually tiptoed downstairs to point out where the choicest objects were stashed and justified it by saying they wanted to make sure there was no lasting damage to our heritage.Even more to the electoral point, neither party has an answer for Trump. His brand of smashmouth politics has them completely off-balance. Ordinarily, such carnage would not be welcome, but we have had for a generation now the worst political class going back to the 30s, and across both parties. We need a housecleaning, and Trump has the dust flying.And some milquetoast is gonna waltz in from the wings and best The Donald? I don’t see that happening. What I see happening is some Republicans finally getting the message that their own personal route to succeeding Trump lies in showing they can actually stand up for and protect our republican form of government. And that’s a good thing, a very good thing.Everyone Who Takes on Trump Ends Up Crushed
Why is gun control such a divisive issue in American politics?
Why is gun control such a divisive issue in American politics?In her answer to this question, Secretary Clinton does a very good job of ignoring said question while pretending to recharacterize it as being, "How can we convince our elected representatives to stand up to the gun lobby and respect the will of the American people?" With all due respect, that's not the question that was being asked, but Secretary Clinton's "answer" provides a great deal of insight into the answer for the question that actually was being asked. To wit, politicians are very good at ignoring the questions that are asked of them, treating those questions as prompts for the smooth delivery of policy statements that will appeal to their base while winning over moderates.In striking contrast to the "answer" offered by Secretary Clinton, let me state without equivocation that the reason gun control is such a divisive issue in American politics is because guns are scary. As a politician, if you can identify something that frightens people and pretend to offer them a solution, then you can solicit donations and generate a following that gets you elected to public office. The same thing is true whether you are a politician who panders to the fears of gun control advocates or one who panders to the fears of gun rights advocates, the difference being that there's a lot more money available for politicians who support gun control. That is to say, far from being a well funded lobbying organization, the NRA is a grass roots organization that is routinely outspent by gun control advocates like billionaire Michael Bloomberg.See also:David F. Prenatt Jr.'s answer to, “Why has Congress not been able to pass meaningful gun control reform legislation in 2016?”David F. Prenatt Jr.'s answer to, “Why doesn't gun control work?”David F. Prenatt Jr.'s answer to, “What can ordinary citizens do to prevent gun violence in the US?”Added at 9:18pm CDT Wednesday August 17, 2016.For those who wish to use the comments section of my answer here to dispute my above claims about the NRA, please see the Quora discussion at “Who spends more on gun policy, the NRA or Michael Bloomberg?” and write your answers and comments there.
Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and why? Which party: Democrat or Republican? Which nominees are the most likely to win their party's nomination? How much will the gender or "race" of candidates influence the 2016 election?
I think there is a high chance Trump will win if Hillary makes the predictable mistake. This mistake would be calling those who support Trump idiots (she has almost done that already but not quite).I am from England and our politicians have made this mistake 3 times. Firstly it was the European elections saying that only idiots would vote for UKIP. The same thing happened in the next general election where UKIP got the a massive amount of votes (sadly only 1 seat in parliament because of how our system works). And then it happened with the Brexit vote as well.Through all these votes, those who supported UKIP or the leave campaign have been called every name imaginable- fruit cakes, lunatics, loonies, swivel-eyed idiots, racists, nazis, xenophobes etc etc.The only thing that insulting your voters does is to make them even more keen to vote for the other side. There were many people torn between voting Conservative or UKIP, however many would have voted UKIP eventually after being insulted by the people who are asking for your vote. “You are a complete imbecile, but I would really appreciate your vote, thank you”Our politicians did not learn from their mistake the first time it happened and they still haven’t learned. And now I can see Hillary doing the exact same thing. From what I have seen Trump insults a lot of people, but he tries to avoid insulting the electorate too much, even those who support Hillary. Hillary and the Democrats however seem to be attacking Trump supporters more often and it is only a matter of time before Hillary outright says what they are thinking- “all you guys who support Trump are redneck racist idiots” (actually I hear this a lot on Quora already)So overall insulting Trump voters is one way to make the undecided voters side with him. Undecided voters see themselves as partially supporting both candidates so it is a bad a idea to start calling them idiots if you want their vote.EDIT 11/03/2016: Looks like I was correct, doesn’t it!EDIT 11/09/2016: Looks like I was very correct indeed!