What will be the outcome of the US 2018 midterms?
I think the conventional wisdom—Democrats will have a Blue Wave because that’s what happens after the other guys win—dangerously oversimplifies this election as routine. One look at the financial statements will tell you there is nothing routine with this election at all. This will be a nastily fought out midterm where Democrats and Republicans will trade a few seats (for reasons I’ll discuss below I think the trade will favor Republicans) but the net control will remain unchanged.Let’s take a look at those fundraising numbers for the DNC and RNC for the last three midterms. All these numbers are from OpenSecrets.org2018 (still unfinished):DNC: Raised: $110M. Spent: $112M. Cash: $9.2MRNC: Raised: $213M. Spent: $188M. Cash: $50.6MThat’s right; the DNC has only raised a whisker more than half of what the RNC has, and has a fifth the cash on hand.For the sake of comparison, here’s the last few midterms:2014:DNC: Raised: $168M. Spent: $165M. Cash: $8MRNC: Raised: $195M. Spent: $196M. Cash: $5MResult: Republicans gained 13 seats.2010:DNC: Raised: $229M. Spent: $228M. Cash: $7.6MRNC: Raised: $199M. Spent: $216M. Cash: $0.7MResult: Republicans gained 6 seats.2006:DNC: Raised: $131M. Spent: $133M. Cash: $3.7MRNC: Raised: $243M. Spent: $254. Cash: $3.1MResults: Democrats gained 5 seats.I want you to glean two major results from this (besides money doesn’t win elections). First, the RNC consistently raises money in midterms better than the DNC, but it’s rarely anywhere close to 2:1. Second, the financial statements almost always look similar, with both parties running similar (and low) cash reserves.This year the RNC is sitting on almost exactly ten times as much money as usual, likely because party leadership wants to wait and see what becomes of the Mueller investigation before they commit resources to an election cycle which is doomed before they start. (There’s your Democrat lead!)PredictionThe RNC leadership will eventually flinch at the thought of not backing anyone in the election and start spending that wad of cash. When they do, the Democrat lead will vanish and the DNC will go into full panic meltdown. They must win this midterm to impeach Trump and the DNC is historically not good at midterm fundraising.Generally midterms don’t have real, “October surprises,” but this one is likely to degenerate into an ocean of Democrat financial scandals.
Were the 2018 midterm elections rigged in favor of Republicans?
No. People are tiring of the Banana Republic politics of the Democratic party and the Socialist nanny state approach. The aging hippies in the party simply refuse to accept it. If you want to win seats you need ideas to make the country better. Not to throw out Parliamentary proceedures and decorum to protest and resist on the chamber floor or whip up rioters in the streets.New unemployment is down, jobs are coming back as is rising GDP which the former administration stated would be impossible, and the stock market hit record highs.To quote a former Democrat Politician; “It's the economy…”
In the upcoming midterm elections, what should we make of the Democrats’ huge fundraising edge over the Republicans? How is the "people's party" raising so much cash?
George Soros, Service Employees International Union, American Federation of Teachers, Carpenters Union, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, National Education Association, Laborers Union, Environment America, Senate Majority PAC (where they get their money from is another story altogether) American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, Newsweb Corp. The list goes on forever before it names any single individual other than George Soros.The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has raised more money than its Republican counterpart, but that is probably because that is where they are focusing their attack this election cycle.Go to OpenSecrets.org. It will tell you a lot more about where the money is coming from than what you’ll read here.G’day Mate!
Which political party stands to gain more in the mid term elections as a result of the Kavanaugh confirmation process?
Kavanaugh’s nomination has been mostly a power grab by the Republicans. It’s no secret that Kavanaugh would mostly favor the Republican party. He was one of the key figures in George W Bush’s presidency. When pressured in his hearing, he outright admitted he wanted revenge on the Democrats. Republicans get the most benefit out of this whole situation. The Democrats’ best hope is to not lose any more power to the Republicans.
Why do democrats believe that they will win big in the midterm elections?
Every day I'm more and more convinced all these stories about the Democratic party being fallen apart and how there's no blue wave coming are propaganda by the right because they're actually deathly scared of the blue wave and the only way they think they have a chance in the midterms is to convince Democrats that they're the minority and that it would be pointless to vote. Personally I'm pretty confident of a blue wave, especially now that Donny has pretty much admitted to treason and obstruction.
What is gerrymandering? And how can it impact elections?
Government homework? Gerrymandering is the process of redrawing district lines to ensure that your party takes the majority of the districts. It was first started over 200 years ago and the process continues today. If there is a big city (cities tend to vote democrat and suburban areas tend toward republican) than the republicans will try break it apart creating as many districts as possible that will vote primarily republican and then as few democratic districts as possible- or vice versa as necessary. This primarily effects state races and House of representative races, and doesn't effect senatorial races or presidential races as districts don't matter in these races. The lines are redrawn in each state every ten years according to census information as the number of representatives each state has is dependent on its population. The party in control at that time tends to be in control of redistricting, and does so to ensure that they remain as in control as possible. If there is a retiring member of congress, their district is the most likely to suffer change to ensure that the open seat is won by the party in charge. Hope you understand better.
Why does the president's party typically lose seats in midterm elections in the U.S.?
For the simple reason that people expect results to happen immediately. They think that if the promises the politician made aren't kept in the first year… they must have been lying and shouldn't be trusted.You add that to the people who will vote for their party regardless and it generally tips the scales in favor of one party over the other.People often don't realize how split the USA is actually due to the political maps not showing how close races tend to be (with winner takes all it makes it look like whole states are red or blue)
Will the Republican Party die soon?
Not soon for several reasons. First, their advantage in state legislatures and the House is not just gerrymandering; it's primarily geographic. Democrats tend to cluster in the urban areas of states (with Democrats tending to get 70% or more in those cities). If you did party-blind districts, the natural district lines would result in many districts that have many more Democratic votes than are needed to make the district a "safe district" making it easy to carve the rest of the state into Republican districts. Second, the party in the White House (which will be the Democrats for the foreseeable future) tends to have lower turnout in mid-term and off-year elections. So, in a lot of swing states, the Democrats will win state-wide in presidential years, but the Republicans will win state-wide in other elections. Third, in ten years or so, when the demographic trends starts to move suburban seats from lean Republican to lean Democrats, the Republican Party will start changing its tune. For example, 2016 is probably the last election in which Republican Presidential candidates will mention same-sex marriage in the primary debate. Supporting a constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage will be a litmus test in this cycle's primary, but, by 2020, the country will have moved on to a different issue. Similarly, once Congress passes the type of immigration reform that polls show have broad support in this country (including some path forward with penalties for those unauthorized immigrants currently in the US), immigration will stop being a major issue in Republican primaries, and the Republican candidates will not need to insult Hispanic voters to get nominated.
How does gerrymandering affect Congressional elections?
I like this graphic because it explains gerrymandering simply.This is the best explanation of gerrymandering you will ever see At this point, the Democrats cannot take the house because the last census was in 2010 after the Tea Party wave was voted in as a reaction to Obama. The Republicans made sure to draw up the new congressional districts so that they would be safe in the majority of them. As Swing Districts Dwindle, Can a Divided House Stand? You can see above that the number of swing districts has dwindled over the years and the number of landslide districts has gone up. A landslide district means there isn't any competition from the other party. The only competition is in the primary from people in the same party. These landslide districts tend to make those in congress move to extremes to satisfy the people who are passionate and thus care enough to vote in the primaries. It has done a lot to create the deadlock in and anger at the current congress.