Who will be the US Republican party nominee for President in 2016?
Here is how I see the next four years playing out:Slow, steady economic improvements nationwide, driven by the return of the housing sector and the continuing depreciation of the dollarCivil war within the Republican party, with the Tea Party saying that candidates are not ideologically pure enough, and that the party needs true conservativesTough primaries for 2014 candidates, with Mike Johanns being tea partied, and a Democrat winning his seatSusan Collins will decide to not seek reelection, disgusted by the changes in the Republican Party, with a Democrat winning her seat Mark Begich will lose to his Republican challengerSo, now you have a Democratic Senate caucus of 56 going into 2016Obamacare will be implemented, the sky will not fall, and people will actually like being covered for pre-existing conditionsGinsberg and Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court, which doesn't change the balance of power, but does allow Obama to appoint young 50-somethings who will be on the court for 30 yearsMaybe Scalia or Kennedy have health concerns that force a retirement? This would change the balance of the court and start a panic in the streets for the Republican baseThis will provoke a crisis of confidence in the Republican establishment; insiders and billionaires will want to go outside the core to take the White House in 2016This sets the stage for some unconventional Republican candidates, chosen to "shake things up" and dramatically open up the map from both 2008 and 2012. My top picks are:Susana Martinez: Popular Latina Republican Governor who has worked across the aisle in a now-blue state. Opens up the map in NM, NV, CO, VA, FL. Especially attractive if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nomineeMichael Bloomberg: Moderate, sensible, pragmatic and has a history of bipartisanship. Could possibly put NY in play, which would be a dramatic shift in the electoral college mapMarco Rubio: Fits the demographics challenge, brings FL in without too much money or time spent, allowing him to focus on driving home the other swing states.